一些基本心得(zt wavelets)

发信人: wavelets (every move you make), 信区: Stock
标 题: 一些基本心得
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jan 29 05:07:44 2009)

灌水太多了，又得至少口头戒一个月买卖提了。
临走总结一下和大家讨论出来的一些基本心得

。我知道的炒股盈利的方法主要是：
1， 找到一些市场现象，模式， 在这种模式下导致比较固定的后续反应，比如，
大涨，大跌等等。这个模式可以是数据的，TA图形的，（可能还有人看星座的，kaka）
，发现了，根据历史上相应的结果，做相应的操作获得利润。很多TA派的，数据派的就
是这样的，这种可以发现一次就做的很大。
2， 找到固定的操作模式，和市场涨跌状态关西不大，基本上是系统方式的解决问
题，把炒股变成枯燥的可重复的动作，解决的方式可以不断改善，象一些DT，scalping
或hedge的做法就是这样，自己做setup，反复动作，靠胜率。少食多餐。
3。 长期投资。。 象海底寻宝一样找有价值有潜力的，这个不是本版最感兴趣的
话题。rim可能可以写一大本心经，c帅可以给一个filter。。。 也是一种可以scale
到很大的做法。


。亏钱的死法可以有千万种，基本上我能想到的：
过于自信，没有耐心，过多重仓操作，不用心。。。，我自己有不少教训


要得到获利大需要几个中的至少一个：
或聪明有悟性
或勤奋谦虚好学
或有guts，敢做大操作
或有极端的纪律性，
或有足够的耐心

要持续获利和保持盈利可能就需要上面的综合素质，买卖提炒股有成功经历的人越来越
多了。
我的心得得益于众多现在还活跃的大小股神身上所学到和所讨论的：psp，bobobobo，
chinook，dodododo，axel，cbot，ibeyond，OOOO，，，，
很多牛人都消失了或换了ID。

新来的青蛙不要急于短期的利害，这些有成功经验的很多帖子里的只言片语都能让你少
交不少学费。

现在每天晚上养成喝杯老酒的习惯了，酒后头昏，忘了什么，几个月后能想起来再补上。

大叔就先唠这么多了，大家快乐trading。

Murphy's news letter about Gold

GOLD AND DEFLATION ... Some readers questioned my reference to gold as a hedge against deflation. You might want to reread my December 16 Market Message which explains how various markets act in a deflationary environment. Quoting from that earlier piece: "One possible beneficiary of those (deflationary) trends is gold which usually thrives in an environment of lower interest rates, a lower dollar, and weak global equities...during the depressionary years from 1929 to 1932, the only two assets that rose were Treasury bonds and gold stocks (bullion was set at a fixed price). The green line in Chart 2 is the 10-Year T-Note yield which plunged during the fourth quarter of 2008. One of the reasons for the plunge in bond yields (and the surge in Treasury prices) was fear of deflation resulting from falling stocks and commodities. Notice that the upturn in gold started in mid-November just as bond yields started to tumble. In the months since then, the two biggest winners have been Treasuries and gold -- not unlike the situation from 1929 to 1932.



ARE GOLD AND THE DOLLAR DECOUPLING ... One thing missing in the bullish case for gold is a falling dollar. Normally both markets trend in opposite directions. Chart 3 shows them doing that throughout 2008. The July gold peak coincided with a dollar bottom, while the November gold bottom coincided with a dollar peak. Both markets have been rising together, however, since the start of 2009. I doubt that will continue much lower. I strongly suspect that the recent upturn in gold is hinting that the dollar rally is overdone and could start to weaken. Chart 4 shows the Power Shares US Dollar Dollar Fund (UUP) gapping down yesterday and forming a bearish "island reversal" pattern (see circle). [An island reversal occurs when an upside gap is followed a few days later by a downside gap]. Only time will tell which of the two markets will continue its recent uptrend. I doubt that both will do it together.