Two charts

Brain's book: Dominant themes throughout the book include the fact that price is the most important factor to consider, nothing else (even volume, which often expands after price moves, not before); that one must trade only what one sees, not what one thinks; the supreme importance of avoiding large losses and protecting capital; how one should listen only to the market and to price action, never to opinions; and perhaps most importantly, that in order to have the odds in one’s favor, one must trade with the prevailing trend (and not just the major trend, but the intermediate and minor trend as well).

Failed Bail Out plan

The Dow told the story of the market's despair. The blue chip index, dropped by hundreds of points in a matter of moments, and by the end of the day had passed by far its previous record for a one-day drop, 684.81, set in the first trading day after the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

The selling was so intense that just 162 stocks rose on the NYSE -- and 3,073 dropped.




The Worst One-Day Percentage Losses for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq
from Trader Mike by Michael

On days like today we always see headlines about how the day’s point losses rank for the indices. But I’m always interested in where the moves rank on a percentage basis because that’s the only way to do a comparison against history. A -777 Dow today, while a record point loss, was *only* a 7% loss and doesn’t rank in the top 5 all-time but it is the 5th worst post-1940 or so. We’re certainly seeing historic moves right now. So here are some of the worst percentage days for the major indices:

Today was the third worst one-day decline for the Nasdaq. Here are the 10 worst percentage losses for the Nasdaq:

* October 19, 1987: -11.35%
* April 14, 2000: -9.67%
* September 29, 2008: -9.14%
* October 26, 1987: -9.01%
* October 20, 1987: -9.00%
* August 31, 1998: -8.56%
* April 3, 2000: -7.64%
* January 2, 2001: -7.23%
* October 27, 1997: -7.16%
* December 20, 2000: -7.12%

The S&P 500 had its second worst day since 1950. (The data’s from Yahoo Finance and only goes back to 1950. The S&P 500 index was created in 1957, but it has been extrapolated back in time.) Here are the 10 worst one-day percentage losses for the S&P 500::

* October 19, 1987: -20.47%
* September 29, 2008: -8.79%
* October 26, 1987: -8.28%
* October 27, 1997: -6.87%
* August 31, 1998: -6.80%
* January 8, 1988: -6.77%
* May 28, 1962: -6.68%
* September 26, 1955: -6.62%
* October 13, 1989: -6.12%
* April 14, 2000: -5.83%

There are a lot of October & September dates in that list!

And finally the Dow. I’m not sure where today’s drop ranks but it’s not in the top 5 (via Dave Manuel).

* October 19, 1987: -22.61%
* October 28, 1929: -12.82%
* October 29, 1929: -11.73%
* November 6, 1929: -9.92%
* December 18, 1899: -8.72%

From the data I pulled from Yahoo Finance, which only goes back to 1928, today was the 17th worst day since 1928.. It was the fourth worst in modern times — which is probably a better measure given how different the world is now. Given all the circuit breakers put in post the 1987 and 1989 “market breaks” it would be real difficult (if not impossible) to get another 22% down day. Here’s the modern top five worst Dow days:

* October 19, 1987: -22.61%
* October 26, 1987: -8.04%
* October 27, 1997: -7.18%
* September 17, 2001: -7.13%
* September 29, 2008: -6.98%

Post from: Trader Mike's Blog

价值投资者阅读书单 (zt)

价值投资者阅读书单

股友“加有化”曾与我分享他的一个价值投资者阅读书单，附在这里，也与其他价值投
资初学者分享——

　　Elementary School （小学)

　　
　　- One Up on Wall Street,（彼得林奇的成功投资）by Peter Lynch（彼得林奇）

　　- Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist（一个美国资本家的成长-巴菲特传）, by Roger Lowenstein

　　- value Investing With the Masters（跟大师学价值投资), by Kirk Kazanjian (0735203210)

　　- The Davis Dynasty(戴维斯王朝——五十年华尔街成功投资历程), by John Rothchild

　　- valuegrowth Investing(价值成长型投资), by Glen Arnold
　　

　　Junior High (初中)

　　
　　- The 5 Keys to value Investing(价值投资五大关键), by J. Dennis Jean-Jacques

　　- Beating the Street(战胜华尔街), by Peter Lynch(彼得?B7林奇)

　　- Investment Fables(打破神话的投资十诫), by Aswath Damodaran

　　- The Vest Pocket Guide to value Investing(价值投资手册), by C. Thomas Howard

　　- Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits(怎样选择成长股), by Philip Fisher (菲利普.费雪)

　　
　　High School （高中）
　　

　　- Made in America（美国制造）, by Sam Walton (萨姆.沃尔顿)

　　- Forbes' Greatest Investing Stories( 福布斯最大投资传奇), by Richard Phalon

　　- John Neff on Investing(约翰.聂夫谈投资), by John Neff (约翰.聂夫)

　　- The Intelligent Investor(聪明的投资者), by Benjamin Graham (本杰明.格雷厄姆)

　　- The Money Masters(金融大师), by John Train

University （大学）

　　
　　- Stocks for the Long Run(股史风云话投资(第3版散户投资正典)), by Jeremy Siegel (西格尔)

　　- Quality of Earnings（盈利的质量), by Thornton Oglove (0029226309)

　　- Investing in Small-Cap Stocks(投资小盘股）, by Christopher Graja and Elizabeth Ungar

　　- The Book of Investing Wisdom（投资智慧书), by Peter Krass

　　- You Can Be a Stock Market Genius(你能成为股市天才), by Joel Greenblatt

　　
　　Grad School （研究院）
　　

　　- Break Up!(分裂), by Campbell, Koch & Sadtler

　　- Investment Gurus(投资大师), by Peter Tanous

　　- value Investing: A Balanced Approach(《价值投资：平稳途径》）, by Martin Whitman

　　- value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond(价值投资：从格雷厄姆到巴菲特及其他), by Bruce Greenwald

　　- The Road to Serfdom(通往奴役之路), by F.A. Hayek (哈谢克)

　　
　　Post-Doc 1: （博士后1）

　　- It's Earnings that Count(起作用的是盈利), Heiserman

　　- The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing(股市真规则), Dorsey

　　- Inside Intuit(Intuit公司内幕), Taylor & Scroeder

　　- Pour Your Heart Into It(星巴克咖啡王国传奇), Schultz & Yang

　　- Investment Philosophies(投资哲学), Damodaran

　　
　　Post-Doc 2: （博士后2）

　　- Damodaran on Valuation(价值评估,另一个译本译名:论价值:投资与公司财务安全性分析), Damodaran

　　- Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation(反向投资策略：升级版), Dreman

　　- Moneyball(钱与球: 在不公平比赛中获胜的艺术), Lewis

　　- Investment Intelligence From Insider Trading (从内线交易中获得的投资情报)

　　- Financial Shenanigans(财务诡计), Schilit

Post-Doc 3: （博士后3）

　　- Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982-1999,(牛市！1982-1999的市场繁荣历史)Mahir

　　- Wall Street: A History,（华尔街史) Geisst

　　- The Effective Executive(有效的管理者), Drucker (彼得.德鲁克)

　　- The Essential Drucker(管理大师德鲁克精华), Drucker (彼得.德鲁克)

　　- The Essays of Warren Buffet（巴菲特致股东的信：股份公司教程）, Buffet

　　
　　Post-Doc 4: （博士后4）

　　- Letters to Shareholders: Warren Buffet （巴菲特致股东的信)

　　- Letters to Shareholders: Charlie Munger (芒格致股东的信)

　　- Bershire Hathaway Owners Manual（伯克夏所有者手册）, Buffet （以上三个
见伯克夏网站）

　　- The Dark Side of Valuation(深入价值评估), Damodaran

拉杂这么许多，再次对但总表示敬意和感激。

Bond, (zt Murphy)

MORE SUPPLY ISN'T GOOD FOR BONDS... One of the side-effects of the massive government bailout plan is that it is going to have to sell a lot of bonds to raise that money. That means the supply of Treasury bonds is going to increase. When the supply of any product increases, its price usually falls. That reality may explain why Treasury bond prices have fallen so hard over the past week. There are technical factors at work as well. Chart 1 shows the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) tumbling over the past week in heavy trading. Part of the reason for Friday's bond slide may have been some switching out of bonds into rising stocks. But there may be more at stake here. Bond prices may be putting in an important top. Chart 1 also shows that the September bond peak failed at its March high. That raises the possiblity of a "double top" in the making.
\

LONGER TERM RESISTANCE... Chart 2 shows another reason why the recent setback in bond prices is so important. The monthly bars show the price of the 10-Year Treasury Note (UST) also backing off its previous peak formed in mid-2003. That makes that a potential major resistance barrier and increases the likelihood that bond prices could be forming a major top. Whether or not that turns out to be good for stocks remains to be seen. In recent years, bond and stock prices have usually trended in opposite directions. Money moving out of bonds has usually moved into stocks. The bigger question is whether or not the stock market can prosper in a climate of falling bond prices and rising bond yields.

这次call底还不错

"What a week! After the Treasury/FED decided to test the market by letting LEH file chapter 11 on monday, the market responded. On monday the DOW dropped 500 points. On tuesday the insurance giant AIG failed and the Treasury effectively nationalized them. Then on wednesday the DOW dropped 450 points more, Gold was rocketing, short term rates were in a free fall, credit was freezing up, and MS/GS were collapsing. With the banks under significant pressure, BSC/LEH/MER already gone, AIG and other insurance companies under pressure, and now the money markets wavering, something had to be done and fast. Hundreds of billions of dollars, by central banks worldwide, were injected overnight into the markets to address liquidity. On thursday as the markets continued to fall extraordinary steps were taken. The SEC invoked the ban on naked short selling again. The UK took it a step further, banning all short selling until next year. As the market gyrated, word came out that a massive government plan was being put together to address the financial markets. The markets recovered and the DOW closed up 400 points. On friday before the open, the SEC invoked a two week ban on all short selling. The Treasury announced it was buying FNM/FRE paper, etc. Markets went soaring worldwide. Then on options expiration day the US markets opened with a huge gap up of over 4%. The major bailout plan is being worked on this weekend by the President, Congress, the FED and Treasury."
From the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on

===========================================================================

发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: 简单说一下今天的情况
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 16 23:03:45 2008)

1.SPX touched 1170 at market open. On monthly chart，it 50% retreat from
2003 bottom to 2007 top.

2.Today's volume is the largest in past three years,probably past several
years.

3.VIX reached to 33.x and closed with a read candle.

4.CPC was 1.47 yesterday, you can check its history.

5. COMPX finally formed a triple bottom.Actually it opened at 2142, which is
lower than March low and closed above yesterday's close. Interesting.

6. 20 is a very import support for XLF. It closed below 20 yesterday, opened
at 18 today and climbed all the way up to close at 20.2. Is this a typical
bear trap?

7. There were divergence on NYAD. Simply say, only 210 common stocks made
fresh 52-week lows in the NYSE Composite universe, versus about 450 in July
and over 700 in January.

8. To be continue....

***For trend follower,they need a major a accumulation day and a higher low,
higher high. Some traders may want to see QQQQ above 46 and SPX above 1260
before taking long potions. But I am not that kind of style now. Trend
follow just doesn't work for this kind of market,.

=====================================================================================
====================================================================================

发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: 靠，全埋葬起来
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 17 16:08:44 2008)

剩下的50%打死我也不出手了，留个东山再起的本钱！

--==================================================================================
发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: 衷心感谢C帅
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 17 17:18:52 2008)

C帅说过：

money management》操作》大盘》stock pick！！

幸亏我牢记在心，不然这次又要被wipe out了！昨天几乎都想要上50%的。后来想别急
，反正已经有了20%了，高开我也没踏空，低开了看情况再加仓！

====================================================================================

发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: Same conclusion with yesterdays
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Sep 17 20:19:33 2008)

虽然今天进去的又被套住了。

不过我还是相信TA就是讲概率。注意money management就行了。

我看金子明天还怎么涨，纯粹是panic！

http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Stock/31466653_3.html

==================================================================

发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: so far today
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 18 12:55:05 2008)

不加，不减，不怕，不慌！

边打游戏边看盘。
--

=======================================================================

发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: I think it is over
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 18 13:17:20 2008)

今天的最底应该是过了。

错了请封我10天！！

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发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: 狂想1
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 18 13:40:03 2008)

aapl close 135 tomorrow！
--
============================================================================

发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: swing trader
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 18 13:52:17 2008)

just buy now，with a stop at today's low!
reward》risk！
--
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发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: It is time to sit tight
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 18 15:41:50 2008)

for swing trader!

Today's low should be a low for quite long time, I believe!

COMPARISON TO 2000-2002 BEAR MARKET (Murphy)

The current bear market has lasted only half as long as the 2000-2002 bear and has lost only half as much ground. Some have asked if this could be a repeat of that earlier market drop. I don't have the answer to that, but I do think there's a good chance that the market will bounce during the fourth quarter. Take a look at Chart 3. It compares the S&P 500 (green line) to the VIX Index (red line) during the earlier bear market. The VIX spiked during the the third quarters in 2001 and 2002. Both spikes led to bottoms in the September/October period and fourth quarter rallies. The 2001 rally, however, lasted only until the first quarter of 2002 before turning back down. The October 2002 bottom turned out to be the real thing. I don't know which of those two scenarios matches the current situation. In either case, however, there's a good chance that the market is approaching a climax bottom of some type which could lead to a fourth quarter rebound. And it should coincide with a peak in the VIX. That's one of the reasons why I advised earlier in the week not to turn too bearish at this point.

A reverse day