Some ETFs

short ultrashort long ultralong
DJIA DOG DXD DIA DDM
S&P SH SDS SPY SSO
Russel2k RWM TWM IWM UWM
QQQQ PSQ QID QQQQ QLD
midcap400 MYY MZZ MDY MVV

ultrashort China FXI is FXP
QID Ultrashort QQQQ
TWM Ultrashort Russell 2000
SDS Ultrashort S&P500
DXD Ultrashort Dow 30
MZZ Ultrashort MidCap400
SSG ultrashort semiconductor
REW UltraShort Technology
EEV UltraShort Emerging Mrkts
SRS UltraShort Real Estate
SKF UltraShort Financials
SCC ultrasort consumer

Powershares also offers at least eight ETFs based on commodity prices. They include agriculturals (DBA), Base Metals (DBB), Energy (DBE), Precious Metals (DBP), and the DB Commodities Tracking Fund (DBC) which is a commodity basket. Chart 9 shows that commodity fund surging to a new record high today which matched a similar move by the CRB Index. Agriculaturals continue to lead the commodity advance (Chart 10). Precious metals and energy were also strong, with gold gaining $13 and oil jumping 4%. Although industrial metals like copper have been the weakest commodity group over the past year, even they had a strong week.(Murphy 2008.2-08)

Using weekly RSI (by Arthur Hill)

Chart 4 shows the S&P 500 in a bull run with 14-week RSI. Notice that the 40–50 zone acts as support in an uptrend. RSI dipped below 50 numerous times, but held above 40 from late 2004 until late 2007. These dips into the 40–50 zone served as an alert to start looking for the end of the correction.

Instead of the 40–50 zone acting as support, the 50–60 zone now acts as resistance. Chart 5 shows the S&P 500 in a bear run with 14-week RSI. The downtrend in SPX got underway with the sharp decline in the second half of 2000. RSI became oversold and bounced back above 50 in May 2001 (blue arrow). This marked resistance and indicated that the counter-trend advance was coming to an end. The same thing happened in December 2001 and March 2002 (red arrows).

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2000-01-24&en=2002-12-31&id=p90046519668&a=128777088&listNum=-1

new weak strong stock by psp

发信人: psp (I love psp), 信区: Stock标 题: new weak strong stock发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 23 00:08:57 2008)

weak stock in weak group

energy:
VLO
TSO
MRO
SUN

food beverage:
STZ
SFD
PPC

strong stock in strong group

airlines:
UAUA
CAL
LCC

real estate:
PPS
UDR
FRE
AIV

Coke‘s buy list

发信人: coke1 (coke), 信区: Stock标 题: Re: let's make a buy list发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 18 16:34:56 2008)

1.next weektrade: DRYS, agriculture, WFR
2. hold for the next couple of months with any significant market dips that sink all boats
hold(diversify): GFIG,agriculture, CQB/FDP,RICK,BBBB(around 30), CROX
=====================================================================发信人: coke1 (coke), 信区: Stock标 题: Re: let's make a buy list发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 18 17:28:07 2008)
股市惨淡的时候, 我自己整理一下想法吧. (buy on significant market dips that bring all stocks with them).大家提意见吧. 批评比较好.
hold(diversify) A: GFIG,agriculture related, CQB/FDP,RICK,BBBB(around 30), CROX/lulu
hold(diversify) B: ALOG,CVD/PPDI, agriculture related, AAPL/GOOG/BIDU/MSFT,ATVI/NTDOY.pk,RTP/PBR
hold(diversify) C: EWM/EWZ, agriculture related, VE/SZE,GEO,DWSN/FWLT,NOK,WFR

==============================================================================发信人: coke1 (coke), 信区: Stock标 题: Re: let's make a buy list发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jan 18 18:48:21 2008)
mostly personal prefences .
B is the riskiest one in my opinion ( in terms of downside risk, since thesestocks haven't corrected as much yet and are fairly high profile). However, they are in one of the few safest areas, defense, healthcare, tech..etc
C is the lowest risk. Secular bull sector plays for the most part (water, agriculture, solar, resource rich emerging market, etc). some with dividend yield.
A relies more on individual stocks (mostly high growth).
when it comes to buy-and-hold, always buy in different batches , to average down a couple of times though (but not too many times. If one has to keep averaging down, something's wrong)

三线开花的原理和运用(snowboy)

1、20日均线----股价中期走势的生命线（20日均线的技术含义）：
　　20均线在低位拐弯向上，往往意味着股票价格走势是中线上升行情。20日均线在高位拐弯向下，往往意味这是中期调整趋势，投资者对此股票不介入或寻机出局。
　　2、20日均线的作用：
　　① 确定中期趋势。20日均线低位拐弯，中期趋势的跟踪线。
　　② 确定买入点。股票价格低位放量上涨突破20日均线，缩量回跌调整到20日均线时的买入点。
　　③ 确定卖点。大多数情况下（除急庄爆涨外）在股票价格远离20日均线20％－30％之间获利了结是个不错的卖点。
　　④ 确定止损点。大幅上涨后20日均线拐弯向下时，应短期止损离场出局或不介入
　　120日均线--半年线--脊梁线
　　120日均线的作用：
　　（1）助涨作用.当120日均线处于上涨状态时，有助涨作用
　　2）重压作用。当120日均线处于下降趋势时，120日均线对股票价格走势具有重压作用。
　　（3）确定买入时机。利用120日均线处于上涨趋势时，对股票价格走势具有的助涨作用，来确定买点。即以120日均线作为支撑线，当股价回跌到120日附近时买入。
　　250日均线--年线--牛熊线
　　250日均线的趋势方向和股票价格升破或跌破250日均线，有着重要的技术分析意义。如果市场中有一大批股票出现这样的走势，说明就要有一波行情了，或者市场中就要出现新的炒作题材了。
　　250日均线的作用与120日均线的作用非常类似。
　　支撑作用：即处于上升状态的250日均线对股价有支撑作用。
　　压力作用：即处于下降状态的250日均线对股价有压力作用，突破这种压力需要成交量和时间才可确认。因此在250日均线走平或向上之前，都不能介入，否则会屡买屡套，损失了金钱和时间
　　如何判别和确认股票价格升破250日均线对股价的压力开始走牛？
　　（1）突破这种压力需要成交量和时间才可确认。带量升破250均线的压力和250均线已调头向上，是判断股票走牛的关键。此时股价即使再度跌破250均线其跌幅亦往往有限，可以认为是股票价格走牛的回档走势。
　　（2）形态特征：
　　250日均线跌势趋缓，股价放量突破250日均线的压力，已经在250日均线之上运行。股价即使随后跌破250日均线，但成交量同时萎缩，显示卖压极小。股价重新放量回升、站稳在250日均线之上时，表明股价已探明底部，此时可放心介入。
　　
　　20日与120日均线金叉穿越
　　(1)20日均线有效金叉120日均线是股票发生转势的买入信号？有效是指叉后量
　　(2)当股票价格走势上穿了120日均线，成交量有所放大，说明了股价已经摆脱了120日均线的压力，股价走势有趋活的迹象。（股价上穿）
　　(3)随后20日均线从下向上穿越120日均线形成金叉，就是确认了这种趋势，这时就是买入股票的信号。（20日均线上穿）
　　(4)穿越时或穿越后若有成交量明显放大的配合，则这个买入信号的可靠性是极高的。
　　(5)当20日均线有效金叉120日均线时，往往意味着随后有一段不小的上升行情
　　20日均线金叉120日均线有哪几种形态？
　　① 回头望月.<股价回落盘整>
　　其技术走势形态特征为：
　　1>股价突破120日均线压力，在120日线上盘整.
　　2>当20日均线从下向上穿越120日均线形成金叉买入点时，股票价格走势缩量回落也宣告结束，开始形成上涨的转点；
　　3>随后股票成交量放大，股票价格走势开始形成大幅的上涨行情。
　　如何确认回头望月的金叉穿越是否有效？
　　需要看随后一两个交易日是否有成交量放大的配合，若叉后有量，则回头望月形态成立
　　② 快马加鞭。<股价高位横盘>
　 　股票价格前期已经穿越了120日均线的压制，处于盘整的走势，此时20日均线正在穿越120日均线。股价升破120日均线的压力后，往往并不回跌调整， 多是高位横向整理，等待着20日均线穿越120均线，而在20日均线穿越20均线的叉点日，出现的是放量拉升的状态。
　　③ 顺水推舟。<股不回跌,不横盘><容易失败的形态>
　 　当20日均线穿越120均线，形成金叉穿越时，其股价形态，并不象快马加鞭那样迫不急待的上涨，也不象回头望月走势那样有明显的回跌砍确认走势，而是顺 其自然的让20日均线与120均线形成金叉穿越，在穿越后成交量往往出现温和和放大，股票价格走势也不象前两种形态那样出现快速上涨。
　　顺水推舟的走势形态，给出的买入信号可操作的时间长，股票价位较低，买入的股价安全性较好。但这样的买点需要有一定的耐性，顺水推舟的技术形态在随后的走势中变数较多，有些会出现失败的走势，应引起注意。
　　如何判断顺水推舟形态的成立？
　　要依靠股价和成交量的关系，尤其是有没有叉后量出现。
　　如何操作顺水推舟技术形态的股票？
　　顺水推舟形成后投资者的参考线就是120均线破不破？20日均线的走势方向是投资者的方向。
　　20日均线上穿120日均线总结。
　 　三种穿越形态都需要成交量的确认。当股票在发出叉点买入信号时买入了股票，如何判别我们买入的股票就会走出这三种形态来呢？只需观察随后几天的成交量的 变化，若成交量有放大，形成了叉后量现象，则说明你操作成功。若随后的成交量没有明显放大，则说明你买入的这只股票并不是现在市场的热点，骑大黑马可能性 比较低，但获些小利离场还是可以的。投资者在分析单个股票走势图时，若发现即将大量出现20日均线穿越120日均线前期走势的股票时，往往意味着不久将有 一波大行情出现。
　　
　　抄底技巧----120跳马
　　1、120跳马的形态定义？
　　在前面的股价 走势中，股价和20日均线120均线形成了顺水推舟、回头望月的走势形态，股票价格走势经过一定幅度的放量上涨后进入盘整过程，无量连续阴线下跌，突然在 某一价位（即120日均线附近）受到强支撑，股票价格走势又开始放量上涨，随后还有大幅的上涨行情。
　　2、120跳马的形态的先期条件？
　　（1）股票价格的前期走势，应形成了20日均线穿越120日均线的黄金交叉走势形态。
　　（2）由于穿越后成交量并没有放得很大，股价没有大幅上涨。
　　（3）穿越后，出现的是缓慢盘升行情或横盘整理的走势，这是跳马形态必不可少的。
　　（4）无量的连续小中阴线的下跌。“无量”说明主力并不是在出货，实际是庄家的洗盘动作。
　　120跳马先期形态的作用？
　　(1）是股价蓄势的过程；
　　（2）是调整均线系统的过程；
　　（3）往往是庄家主力在耐心吸筹的过程。
　　
　　120跳马中250日均线的作用也非常重要？
　　当250日均线与120日均线相距不远，与120日均线形成双支撑，这样，股价触到120日均线附近反弹，则更加有力可靠。
　　
　　20日均线与120均线形成死叉的警示信号 （包括大盘和个股）
　　提示：预示着大暴跌即将来临。20线触120线反弹就是120跑马，向下死叉则是警示信号
　　
　　20日与250日均线交叉的市场变幻
　　提示：20日与250日均线的交叉关系非常类似于20日120日均线的关系
　　20日均线与250日均线死亡交叉的滞后特性？ 即不能用该死亡交叉来预测股票价格还要下跌.
　　20日均线突破250日均线时的黄金交叉点是最佳的买入点。
　　在形态特征上，20日均线与250日均线形成的金叉穿越的技术走势中，与20日均线金叉穿越120日均线形成的技术走势非常的相似，也有“回头望月”和“顺水推舟”，而出现“快马加鞭”的技术走势不太常见。
　　
　　1、三线开花的含义？
　　20、120、250这三条均线经过金叉穿越后，像开喇叭花一样，形成极度分离的多头排列的特殊的技术形态，这就叫三线开花。
　　2.三线开花的具体形态？
　　并线三线开花、顺向三线开花和逆向三线开花。这三种技术走势形态都十分有效的预测股票价格走势的技术形态
　　1>并线三线开花？其形态一旦成立有较大的获利空间，是大黑马的摇篮<120日和250日极度平行状态>
　　是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线是处于极度接近的平行状态，此时20日均线从下向上穿越这两条均线的技术走势，形成均线的金叉穿越。
　　穿越后如果股票价格走势出现大幅放量的上涨行情，就预示并线三线开花走势成立，并将预示均线系统将要“开大花”，其隐含的技术意义就是股票价格将要大幅上涨。
　　2>顺向三线开花？其形态一旦成立也有较大的获利空间<120日和250日金叉先>
　　是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线是顺向交叉的状态，即120日均线从下向上穿越250日均线，形成两条长期均线的黄金交叉，此时20日均线从下向上穿越这两条均线交叉点的技术走势形态。（交叉点即买入信号）
　　形成顺向三线开花的技术走势，并且在穿越的过程中成交量有效放大，就预示顺向三线开花走势成立。
　　3>逆向三线开花？一旦形态成立，预示股票将要走牛<120日和250日死叉先>
　　逆向三线开花，是指在三线开花的初始点，120日均线与250日均线形成死亡交叉，即120日均线下穿250日均线，此时20日均线由下向上穿越这个交叉点的技术走势形态。
　　形成逆向三线开花形态，预示股票将要走牛，但在20日均线穿越120日均线和250日线交叉点时，应有成交量有效放大的支持，这样逆向三线开花形态才成立。
　　
　　是不是所有的金叉点都可买入股票?
　　特殊的均线穿越金叉点不是买点，反而是卖点的走势形态。
　　首先，是行情突然暴发，形成暴涨行情，当20日均线上穿120日均线和250日均线即形成金叉穿越时，股价也到了最高位；
　　其次，其前期的走势形态既不是“回头望月”也不是“顺水推舟”和“快马加鞭”，若说是“快马加鞭”则没有“突破大均线后的盘整走势”形态，所以这是一种特殊形态；
　 　第三，这种金叉穿越形态中，有时20日均线并不是顺其自然的与大均线形成金叉穿越，而是被强行的“提带”与大均线来形成“金叉穿越”。有一种强扭瓜的味 道，由于这种“均线金叉穿越”使改变的均线形态变成了目的，既然目的已经达到，也就失去了目标，因此这种金叉穿越点就不是买点反而是卖点了。
　　
　　120日均线与250日均线金叉买点
　　120日与250日均线的金叉买点获利技巧（短线快速暴利买点）:120日均线上穿250日均线，形成黄金交叉，此时若股票价格反而是下跌状态，并回跌到120日与250日均线的交叉点附近时，这是一个短线快速获暴利的绝佳买入点。
　　
　　长牛股的基础：两线顺向火车轨
　 　当120日均线上穿250日均线后，120日均线和250日均线呈现顺向排列走势，即120日均线在上，250日均线在下，出现多头排列所以叫顺向排 列。在以后的价格走势中，股票价格在120日均线之上，120日均线与250日均线都呈现平稳的上涨走势，两条线近乎于平行线，这样的股票价格走势图形， 叫做“两线顺向火车轨走势”。
　　
　　90周线特殊形态：周线三线开花
　　周线三线开花，是以周线系统中的主要均线 参数即5周线、20周线和90周线为主，构成类似于1250日线系统的“三线开花”形态时，这时的周线走势形态就叫做“周线三线开花”。也就是说20周线 与90周线处于并线状态或顺向交叉状态，此时5周线几乎同时上穿20周线和90周线，形成了一个多头发散的均线排列组合状态。
　　
　　周线三线开花的重要使用技巧：在使用日线三丝开花时，注意周线三线开花是否也支持。

瞎说TA,顺势，资格 --〉知己知彼，百战不殆！

瞎问瞎说 08-01-13 02:10:29

操练TA有点像华山派里的剑宗，玩FA有点像气宗。新手低手上来就练精深内功恐怕不容易。玩点儿TA皮毛还入门容易些。不过长期玩最好内外兼修！

TA里玩的是各种技术指标：价格，量，均线，BB, MACD, STO, RSI, KD，趋势线，阻力支撑，现金流，金叉死叉，等等等等。。。。新手恨不能啥都用上，但很快发现矛盾信号百出，不知道该跟那个。过些日子发现，在特定情况下，某些指标好使，于是简化。可刚赢一点钱，很快就吐了出去。然后再修炼，再简化，于是只用很简单的有限指标。这是也许感觉胜率比开始入门高多了，感觉一好，就加大投入，结果很有限次失手就导致前功尽弃。到了特定阶段，有些人觉得自己TA水平大涨了，咋反而赢钱更难了？

顺势操作也许是每个人在入市第一课就学到了。有了基本TA技巧后，更觉得识别趋势还不是小菜一碟？timing市场不容易，识别趋势还有谁不会？相信每个人反思过去的失手，有相当一部分还是因为逆势操作了。这就怪了，都觉得识别趋势没问题，也都知道要顺势，为啥还会逆势操作呢？

老瞎作为低手，从历次大的失手，被血洗的经历中，意识到自己其实在重复大家不断重复的一些基本错误：生吞活剥TA指标，妄测顶底，逆势操作，发现错了加平摊，等等。。。这些还仅仅是表面现象，为什么同样的错误有时一再以不同形式重复呢？比如用TA妄测翻转，结果错了。继续犟，逆势平摊，直到撑不住了，只好被迫出场（这不叫止损，是被动的）。接着发现再多撑一会儿的话，不仅不损，往往还能大大反败为胜。于是下次再出错的时候，这个印象就在潜意识里兴风作浪。于是错误又重复了！

这里又引出了资格问题。为啥撑不住了呢？马金靠是很多人撑不住的一个主要原因，熬破神面临OE临近是另一个，当然还有其他因素，比如本金大损！有人说：别扯那么远，占对边了啥都解决了。问题是谁能每次站对呢？有人说加强资金管理，不沾马金熬颇神。再看看，就会发现单玩股票只做多的，也一样有被扫地出门的！
说资格不能不提止损。自己常问，新手们也常问该如何止损。高手指点不是用百分比，就是用一定量，或是主要支撑或者阻力附近，等等等等。不少低手说了，自己一止损就暴涨。一路止下去，很快就本金荡然无存。有人马上指出，没本事万趁早别玩！。。。

说到这里，很多朋友，特别是还没发财，还在痛苦中挣扎的朋友更觉得股海茫茫，希望渺茫啊！其实等九阴九阳真经练到第九重功力再玩，听上去好像有道理，但并没有操作性！时间不等人，每人能力也有不同，很多人一辈子也练不到第九重！

其实，只要知己知彼，啥水平都可能有啥水平的玩法。不一定就是死路一条。知己就是要先知道自己有多大本事，有多少钱在输得起的范围。有多大本事就要判断在啥时间段上，啥市场条件下啥策略自己有相对高的胜率。只要超出了这范围，坚决离场，坚决看别人发财。这样扬长避短，胜率自然会相对高了。再看输得起多少钱，止损的额度其实简单，就是要让自己觉得一点不是负担。超出了，就太多了，心态就坏了。进场前先算计好最多能容忍输多少，和自己能力判定范围内可比较肯定预期的获利潜力是否成比例。比如说盈亏比不小于3或者5。不满足条件决不下手。

知彼就是理解市场，理解市场的不可预测性，理解市场是老大，自己判断错，猜错几乎是必然。那么假如玩的量是输得起的，时间段和市场条件是自己胜率高的情况，这就给自己赢得了资格。有了资格，加上有限的TA, 和自己做的时间段吻合的趋势识别，死磕的条件就具备了！只要市场继续波动，只要认定的时间段内趋势不打破，死磕到盈利的可能性就非常大！每次都输掉的可能性大大降低！

底能不能抄？顶能不能猜？没资格最好别干！但假如你有了资格，在大趋势里猜个小顶，抄个小底，错了也不伤大雅。老瞎体会：为啥流动的建筑说对新手long option最安全，为啥401King说赔钱决不离场，这都是以有资格为前提条件的！

总结起来：TA不灵往往是资格不具备，顺势没挣钱往往也是资格不具备。从资格入手，知己知彼，那是绝对百战不殆！谁要问，这样要是还输钱咋办？老瞎的回答是重新检查资格！重新审视知己知彼程度！谁要再问，老瞎要这么明白了咋还会被血洗过涅？回答是：老瞎要是早明白了绝对不会被血洗！哇哈哈哈。。。

越说越乱，前言不搭后语。想说得太多，水平太低。已经又臭又长了。希望对和老瞎一样的新手低手有帮助，发了财不用交会员费，请大千洪洞刁民们满汉全席，大碗喝酒，大块吃肉就全齐了！看帖要回帖，大家帮着修正完善，老瞎不信找不到一条在特定有限市场条件下让普通人稳定盈利的路！死磕，唯有死磕！

多空操作秘笈 摘要(snowboy128)

Stan Weinstein's secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets
一. 一切从此开始
. 只要你能够让获利部份持续成长, 快速停止亏损, 即使操作的正确性 低於50%, 你仍然可累积大笔财富.
. 轨跡呈现一切
. 不可在没有检验线路图的情况下买卖股票
. 不可在好消息公佈时买进股票, 尤其涨幅已大
. 不可在股价暴跌时, 因为股价便宜而买进股票
. 不可在线路图的下跌趋势中买进股票
. 不可持有处於下趋势的股票
. 永远保持一贯
. 股价在压力区下停留愈久, 向上突破愈具意义
. 股价四阶段:打底, 上升, 头部, 下降 . 底部愈宽广, 上涨潜力愈大

二. 买进的戒律
. 整体市场处於空头走势时, 不可买进
. 不可买进处於负面类股的个股
. 不可买进处於30週移动平均下方的个股
. 30週移动平均不可处於下降状态
. 不可在涨势发动太久才买进
. 不可猜测底部

三. 买进参考指南
. 检查整体市场的主要趋势
. 发觉少数技术面最佳的类股
. 由有利的类股中, 挑选具有多头型态, 写下每支个股需要突破的价位
. 缩减明细表, 捨弃上档不远处有压力的个股
. 检查相对强度, 再缩减明细表
. 将一半部为投入符合买进标準的少数个股
. 如果成交量在突破时出现有利状况, 而下跌时量缩, 则拉回时投入另一半部位
. 如果成交量呈现负面情况, 在最初涨升或跌到突破点下方时, 出脱持股

四. 成交量
. 永远不要相信一个未伴随成交量巨增的突破
. 让事情单纯, 但要有获利性

五. 卖出
. 不可因为本益比低而持有该股票
. 不可因为本益比高而卖出股票
. 在负面情况下, 不可向下摊平
. 不可因市场处於多头走势而拒绝卖出
. 不可等下一波反弹再卖出
. 不可只因某支股票品质好而持有它

六. 亏损
. 无论系统多麼卓越, 也不会100%获胜
. 亏损不代表蠢蛋
. 战术不佳而获胜, 依赖的是运气
. 遵循纪律而认赔, 反而是明智的
. 永远不允许单一的亏损不成比例的扩大

有效执行交易的20条法则 在不同的市场交易策略之中，交易执行可能是最弱的一环。毕竟，发现好的股票比交易它们以获取利润简单得多。因此，我们该如何在正确的时间进入市场？并从我们所见的图形中玃取大幅变动的利润？这裡有20条关於有效执行交易的法则，在下一次你準备扣动板机时试试它们。

１. 寻找你认同的进场状况，或是持续留在场外直到它们出现。不好的交易执行将会毁坏完美的操作佈局。

２. 在你交易之前看看报价，找出足以佐证你的看法的蛛丝马跡。时间、盘整以及趋势必须支持你所预期即将发生的反转、突破或是假突破。

３. 选择执行交易或是留在场边，停留在场外不做交易也是一种积极的操作。所有的机会都会带来风险，即使是完美的操作佈局也可能导致非常不理想的部位。

４. 过滤出那些你準备交易的计划，如果无法符合你的风险承受度，放弃它。

５. 在场边等待交易机会的发展，你所準备交易的标的总会有完美的进场时刻出现。
６. 在你进场执行交易之前，要决定好你所要停留在场中的时间长短；不要在投资中进行当日冲销，也不要把赚取差价当作投资。

７. 依据市场流向持有部位，不要逆势。冲浪显然比被鯊鱼吞噬来得好玩。

８. 在人工市场中避开开盘，有人总是在等著笨蛋的到来。

９. 与群眾保持一段距离，他们的情绪往往会使你感受到相反方向的交易机会，切记利润很少会跟随在群眾身边的。

１０. 保持用心倾听市场，在你进场交易之前让它先露出底牌。

１１. 在你準备下单之前，保持你的手离开键盘。除非你能训练到你的手指动的速度比你的脑部运作快，你只跟随正确的讯号做动作。

１２. 在盘势混乱以及盘整缺乏方向时保持在场外。

１３. 在进行当冲之前先学著hold部位，较长的持有期间可以降低因执行不良所带来的风险。

１４. 降低你的部位规模，直到你的交易记录显示出优良的获利绩效，每笔分析儘量数据化，而且不要太急於交易。

１５. 运用摆盪策略交易区间市场，运用动量交易策略来交易趋势市场。

１６. 一个平凡的部位有著优越的进场点会比一个很好的部位但进场点不佳所赚得还要多。

１７. 在行情拉回时站在群眾前面，而在行情突破时则站在其后；当条件足致反转时须随时準备与群眾反向。

１８. 找出群眾会失控的突破点，不论是放弃的点或是开始抢进的点。然后在他们之前先行交易。

１９. 当你可以看著市场时，运用市价单以快速进入市场；而当你远离市场时，运用限价单来进场。

２０. 专注於交易的执行，而非各项技巧或科技的帮助。速度快的终端机使好的交易员更好，但是它们并不会帮助输家。

Wall Street Eyes Earnings Data This Week

Sunday January 13, 3:45 pm ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer Data on Earnings, Retail Sales, Inflation May Bring Wall Street Closer to Answer on Recession NEW YORK (AP) -- This week's flood of readings on inflation, retail sales and earnings is just what a data-hungry Wall Street has been anxious for.

But it could be a case of the old saying, be careful what you ask for, because you might actually get it. Evidence that consumers and companies are cash-strapped could mean the economy is on a fast track toward recession -- or already in the midst of one.

"I think we're going to look back on fourth-quarter earnings and instead of thinking the recession is coming, if there is one, it already started," said JPMorgan equities analyst Thomas J. Lee.

Stocks floundered last week, bouncing higher and lower as investors grasped for direction ahead of the upcoming earnings deluge. Last week brought a pledge from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that he was prepared to lower interest rates if needed, and news that Bank of America Corp. was buying the embattled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp.

But the two pieces of encouraging news gave stocks only a temporary lift, as upcoming economic data and earnings releases hung over investors' heads.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 1.51 percent for the week, the Standard & Poor's 500 index was down 0.75 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index was down 2.58 percent.

This week, investors will pore over fourth-quarter results from a stream of banks -- Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo & Co. and Washington Mutual Inc., to name a few -- and other big names such as Intel Corp., International Business Machines and General Electric Co.

The fourth-quarter numbers, already expected to be disappointing, will be less important than the outlooks the companies give, as investors try to gauge when earnings will rebound. The financial sector will be under particular scrutiny, being the industry that dragged down the rest of the market in 2007, as will technology, which was the Wall Street darling last year.

Meanwhile, the government will release its monthly readings on retail sales, producer prices, consumer prices and home construction; the Federal Reserve comes out with its Beige Book on economic conditions in various parts of the country; and Fed officials will deliver speeches ahead of their Jan. 29-30 meeting on interest rates.

The market believes the week's data, in sum, will point to a weakening economy but also moderating inflation -- a formula for more rate cuts, which may not save the country from recession altogether but could help it bounce back more quickly.

Economists surveyed by Thomson Financial last Friday anticipate that the Commerce Department will report Tuesday that December retail sales were close to flat with November, given last week's wretched readings from individual retailers.

The economists also predict the Commerce Department will report Thursday that housing starts and building permits fell in December from the prior month.

The market sees the Labor Department's readings on producer prices and consumer prices rising by a smaller amount in December than they did in November. Higher-than-expected readings could reignite jitters that the Fed, though likely to reduce rates at the end of the month, may choose to limit its rate-lowering campaign.

With the state of the economy in question, Wall Street is likely to remain on edge throughout the next few weeks of earnings. It's possible, though, that the stock market -- sometimes seen as a bellwether for the economy and not the other way around -- may have already completed the bulk of its sell-off.

Lee pointed out that a survey this week by the American Association of Individual Investors showed that bearish investors outnumbered bullish investors by nearly 30 percent. Over the past 1,100 weeks (about 21 years) a reading above 26 percent has happened 15 times, he said -- and each time, the S&P 500 was up in six months and in a year.

The Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq all tumbled during the fourth quarter and are down several percentage points so far for 2008.

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speech on Financial Markets (Text)

http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=983782

贴一张Murphy图

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&id=p23288151497&a=127028169&listNum=3

MONTHLY BANDS GIVE DOWNSIDE TARGETS ... Chart 2 applies "monthly" Bollinger Bands to the S&P 500 for the last ten years. The middle (dashed) line is the 20-month moving average. [Daily, weekly, and monthly Bollinger bands use 20 as the default value]. Focus on the 20-month average first. Notice that it acts as an excellent support line during major uptrends (1997 to 2000 and 2003 to 2007) and a bearish resistance line during major downtrends (2000 to 2003). There have been only two crossings of that line in the last eight years -- a downside crossing in 2000 and an upside crossing in 2003. Each correction in the last five years has bounced off that support line. Chart 2 shows, however, that the 20-month (or 400-day) average is being tested once again. A decisive close below that line would be taken as a major bear signal. How much could the market drop if that were to occur? That's where the lower Bollinger band comes into play. A decisive violation of the middle line usually leads to a drop to the lower band. At the moment, the lower bands sits at 1267 (and rising). A drop to the lower band would represent a decline of 20% from the October high. That would qualify as an official bear market. Chart 3 adds another piece of information supporting a 20% decline from the recent peak. The horizontal lines represent Fibonnaci retracement levels. In a downtrend, a market will usually retrace at least 38% of its previous uptrend. Chart 3 shows the 38% retracement line coinciding with the lower Bollinger band. That doesn't mean the market can't drop further. But that's a minimum downside target. And I think we're heading there.

Apple Trading From 90 to 200 - Lessons Learned

发信人: eric717 (eric), 信区: Stock标 题: Apple Trading From 90 to 200 - Lessons Learned发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 2 23:21:53 2008)

I closed out all my January Apple options at the opening this morning including 500 Jan 150 calls and 200 Jan 180 and Jan 200 calls as planned to delay tax payment to this year. In addition I closed all my Jan 100 and Jan 130 RIMM calls. All of them made money except Jan 130 RIMM call, which lost about 80% of value. 2007 has been a wonderful year to me and it surpasses myprevious record year 1999 in terms of percentage gain when I rode YHOO and CMGI options to my first 1 million. I traded my call Apple positions three times and Apple alone is more than a 10 bagger for me. I would like to take this opportunity to look back my trading using Apple as an example and discuss the lessons learned. Most of them can be applied to general stock investment.

I have been trading my core Apple options three times this year. First on the week of Iphone announcement, I bought Jan 120 call when the stock is in 90s and sold all my position on the first day of Iphone sale in June when Apple reaches high 120s. I reentered the position of Jan 150 call the next week and sold them when Apple reaches high 140s. The last set of Jan 150, 180 and 200 calls entered mostly in August crash and I added some positions in November when Apple dropped to 170. I will discuss in detail the rationalof how decisions were made for each round of trades and some strategies I used.

To understand my trading style you have to be aware of the compliance restrictions on my trading. I have to wait xx days after submitting a trade request to execute trades. In another word I have to be able to predict whatwill happen xx days before, which is almost impossible. For all three rounds of enter and exit my positions, round one buy and sell, round two buyand round three sell can be planned ahead of time since we all know the events before they announce. In terms of timing on round two sell and round three buy I have to admit I am a little bit lucky. Due to this trading restriction I can only make intermediate to long term trades. So far the total compensation package I got from my current firm still worth this sacrifice.

First topic I want to discuss is related with the use of FA and TA in trading. For me FA will decide which stock I play. In Apple’s case, after doing intensive research on Iphone I am convinced that it will be a breakthrough product and will have huge impact on its earnings in next couple of years. I missed stock run-up on iPod launch and I am not going to miss this time again. That’s the reason I entered my initial Jan 120 call. But it doesn’t mean stocks with strong fundamentals will go straight up. Quite often it may get overbought on momentum and get ahead of itself. Underthis scenario, TA can help you make sell decisions. Personally I like to use the following TA indicators to predict the direction of the overall market: index put/call ratio, NYSE and NASD overbought/oversold oscillator and VIX. In my case I want to capture macro-cycle of market movement insteadof micro-cycle movement and combine that with TA of individual stock to make decisions. This is partly due to my trading style and partly due to my believing that no one can predict each small movement accurately as I see first-hand example of many professional traders over the years. Conversely we can also make buy decisions on individual stock with strong fundamentals when overall market is oversold. In general it’s a good bet in the past forme the stock reaches bottom if it has a big reversal day with huge volume, down big at open and come back gradually and close in positive. The stock like Apple with strong FA and momentum usually bottoms before overall marketbottom out and rebounds before overall market start recovery. There are twoways to buy, some people want to confirm it’s already bottomed out and on the rise or you decide the price is good enough to pick up the shares even if it may have more downside to go. Too often people are either scared to buy and always try to pick up the exact low which is impossible. In case of Apple, if you believe it will reach 200 by the end of the year in November crash, pick up shares at 170 is not bad at all. That’s exactly what I am doing when I entered some Jan 180 calls when the stock is around 170. The sign of recovery I use to judge is if the stock keep making higher high and higher low with increasing volume.

Second topic I want to discuss is how to take advantage of being a small investor. Buy and hold strategy for a stock like Apple is fine as long as fundamental are not change and you don’t have much time to follow the market. For small investors if you have time to follow the market and are good at it you should take advantage of quickness and flexibility. In the word of Deporre, noted stock market investor and writer for realmoney.com, the key of maximizing assets is shark investing – protecting capital while aggressively pursuing profits. I would recommend you to read his book ‘Invest Like a Shark’. As long as you can capture each macro-cycle movement over the year (usually there are three or four of them) in long or short side or both you will make good amount of money. Obviously some people can even capture most of micro-cycles like PSP in this board but it’s very difficult to do that for most of people. I would suggest being good at trading on large movement first.

Third topic I want to discuss is about trading options. I have written one articles in the past to emphasize risk management. It’s so important and I can emphasize enough. In November crash my 500 Jan 150 call lose value of 1 million in a week (option price dropped from 40 to 20 when stock drop from 190s to 160s). The reason I am not panic is first I used the gains I made early of the year on APPLE and FXI, LFC to open this position and second I opened position in a relatively low price (6-7). What I emphasize here is two things: first only use the money you can lose to play the options; second if you miss the entry points don’t try to chase it just wait until next opportunity. Another thing I want to emphasize again is that you don’tput a lot of money to play short-term options. Only open the positions three-or four money down the road or even longer. In this way if something unexpected happens you still have time to recovery.

Fourth topic is about FX option trading. I allocated small part of my capital to trade FX options. In FX trading the margin can be as high as 200:1. I made some long term bet on USD/EUR, USD/CAD and USD/JPY move and it’s quite rewarding. If you have time and money you can consider to trade small capital on different asset class not just stocks. Obviously you have to knowwhat you are doing.

Some predictions for 2008, it will be a roller coaster. I am considering thefollowing stocks to trade: AAPL, RIMM. AMZN, CME, MA, FSLR and PCLN so far. It could be in long side or short side. In terms of Apple, here’s my prediction: I don’t think it will drop significantly from here giving MAC conference and Jan earnings. Any significant drop is a chance to pick up shares and sell on the day before MAC conference announcement. I think it will drop like the past couple of years after announcement. I would pick up the shares and sell after earnings announcement. I think significant correction will not happen after earnings run-up. I opened some April 210 calls today to play this event. In terms of Apple price for 2008 I think it will have the chance to reach 250-300 range considering ultra-thin notebook and 3G Iphone release. I may be wrong. Trade at your own risk.

Finally I want to wish happy and prosperous New Year to everyone!

JAN 04 watch

a:
CMED, FWLT, TEVA
b:
WFR, HOLX, STV, PCLN
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c:
LVS, MNST