Saturday, August 30, 2008
Presidential cycle (zt Murphy)
PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE ... According to the Almanac, presidential election years are usually up years. Most of those gains come in the second half of the year. The last seven months have seen gains in 13 of the last 14 election years (the only exception being in 2000 when the election results were delayed). That would seem to bode well for this year ending strong. A study of presidential year patterns seems to show two distinct patterns. Several bottoms took place by mid-year (1996, 1988, 1984). Others took place during October (2004 and 1992). That doesn't help us determine whether this year's bottom is behind us or ahead of us. It does mean, however, that odds favor the market ending the year on a stronger note once it gets beyond the dangerous September/October period.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Stocks with the Highest Short Interest
Below we highlight stocks in the S&P 1500 with the highest short interest as a percentage of float. Investors like to look at these names to 1) find companies that investors are extremely negative on, and 2) find companies that could see big spikes on any hint of positive news due to short covering. As shown, JOS A Bank (JOSB) is the most heavily shorted stock in the index, with 91.5% of its float sold short. JOSB is followed by CORS, NTRI, LTM, HZO and NILE. Sears Holdings is another name on the list of heavily shorted stocks, and even after a negative earnings report today, it is trading higher, most likely due to short covering. There are some names on the list that have seen big gains this year. These stocks have rallied in the face of bearish investor sentiment, and include TRLG, BWLD, BIG, WERN, ZLC, SYNA and ARO.
The list below highlights stocks that have seen the biggest increase in short interest over the last month. For whatever reason, investors have taken a more bearish stance on these names. (Note that some of these names could have an accelerated buyback going on. This increases short interest because for the buyback to take place immediately, the bank involved in the buyback sells (shorts) the stock to the firm and then covers it over time.) Notable names on the list include KFT, PCX, SNDK, GD, LLL and LMT.
The list below highlights stocks that have seen the biggest increase in short interest over the last month. For whatever reason, investors have taken a more bearish stance on these names. (Note that some of these names could have an accelerated buyback going on. This increases short interest because for the buyback to take place immediately, the bank involved in the buyback sells (shorts) the stock to the firm and then covers it over time.) Notable names on the list include KFT, PCX, SNDK, GD, LLL and LMT.
RFMD
double bottom。
consolidation at 200MA for three weeks and breaks out today。
there is not too much resistance until 5.5。
stop point could be 200MA at close basis。
consolidation at 200MA for three weeks and breaks out today。
there is not too much resistance until 5.5。
stop point could be 200MA at close basis。
Trading Volume
Trading Volume
from AlphaTrends by Brian
Volume: Always Second to Price
Volume analysis can supply us with important information regarding the conviction of the buyers and sellers in a market, but it is important to remember that it comes second to price, as in the end price is the only thing that pays.
There are many instances where a stock will rally on lower-than-average volume, and many participants, afraid a low-volume move will not be sustained, will distrust the move and miss out. Decisions to buy and sell should be based on price action first. If the volume does not expand in the direction of the trend as you would expect, consider reducing your risk by selling off a piece of your position and keeping a tight stop on the balance. Whatever you do, do not fight a trend because of volume concerns. Volume will often follow price as more participants are motivated by the emerging trend activity to take action, and fighting the trend can become very costly.
Understand the healthy relationship of the volume expansions in the direction of the primary trend as compared to the diminished volume on the counter-trend moves. This relationship shows conviction in the direction of the primary trend followed by a lack of opposition as the stock consolidates, which increases the likelihood of a trend continuation.
Know that liquidity for a stock is not a constant even when the average daily volume reaches millions of shares. Liquidity is impacted by a long litany of factors such as time of year; time of day; times surrounding corporate events such as earnings, new product developments; and, of course, technical events such as breaking past a key level of support or resistance. Trading volume outside of the normal hours (9:30-4:00 pm EST) tends to be very choppy and is best left to only the most experienced and disciplined traders.
Low-volume times of the year don’t necessarily mean avoiding the markets as some believe. One of my favorite times of year to trade is the last two weeks of the year. It seems as though the market becomes more predictable without the influence of the larger program trades. The moves in the more speculative names seem to be left “unchecked” and allowed to run. Be sure to understand the factors that affect the liquidity of the market overall and more importantly, the stocks you are trading, to minimize the impact of your order to the market.
from AlphaTrends by Brian
Volume: Always Second to Price
Volume analysis can supply us with important information regarding the conviction of the buyers and sellers in a market, but it is important to remember that it comes second to price, as in the end price is the only thing that pays.
There are many instances where a stock will rally on lower-than-average volume, and many participants, afraid a low-volume move will not be sustained, will distrust the move and miss out. Decisions to buy and sell should be based on price action first. If the volume does not expand in the direction of the trend as you would expect, consider reducing your risk by selling off a piece of your position and keeping a tight stop on the balance. Whatever you do, do not fight a trend because of volume concerns. Volume will often follow price as more participants are motivated by the emerging trend activity to take action, and fighting the trend can become very costly.
Understand the healthy relationship of the volume expansions in the direction of the primary trend as compared to the diminished volume on the counter-trend moves. This relationship shows conviction in the direction of the primary trend followed by a lack of opposition as the stock consolidates, which increases the likelihood of a trend continuation.
Know that liquidity for a stock is not a constant even when the average daily volume reaches millions of shares. Liquidity is impacted by a long litany of factors such as time of year; time of day; times surrounding corporate events such as earnings, new product developments; and, of course, technical events such as breaking past a key level of support or resistance. Trading volume outside of the normal hours (9:30-4:00 pm EST) tends to be very choppy and is best left to only the most experienced and disciplined traders.
Low-volume times of the year don’t necessarily mean avoiding the markets as some believe. One of my favorite times of year to trade is the last two weeks of the year. It seems as though the market becomes more predictable without the influence of the larger program trades. The moves in the more speculative names seem to be left “unchecked” and allowed to run. Be sure to understand the factors that affect the liquidity of the market overall and more importantly, the stocks you are trading, to minimize the impact of your order to the market.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Does trend follow work?(zt Quantifiable Edges)
If you trade trend or breakout strategies and have found the market difficult in the last year or so, I’m about to show a prime reason for that diffuclty. Below is a strategy that buys the S&P 500 on the close of any up day. The position is closed at the close of a down day. Essentially your looking to buy strength and sit out weakness.
This strategy worked well in the 90’s, but since the market topped in 2000, it has performed poorly. Since the Spring of 2007 it has really accelerated lower. What this means is that performance following up days has been especially bad. It suggests the environenment has been especially choppy. Whereas strength begat strength in the 90’s, it has led to immediate weakness since.
Now let’s take a look at downside follow through. In this case the strategy is to sell short on any down day and then cover on an up day.
This was a break-even strategy through July of 2002. Since then it has done terrible. Interestingly, it’s done especially bad over the last year plus. Even though the market has fallen precipitously, the manner in which it has occurred has made it difficult to profit if you’re trying to short breakdowns. Down days have been followed by up days.
What about a combination strategy? Buy strength and short weakness in anticipation of further follow through. Below is a chart with the combo strategy:
Again, since March 2007 this strategy would have experienced an incredible freefall.
Perhaps it would be best to take a step back, though. In the next chart I show back to 1960 instead of 1993 in an effort to find other periods where choppiness has been so prevalent.
As you can see, buying after strong days and selling after weak ones worked well for 40 years. In 2000 that changed, and the last year and a half is the worst it has ever been with regards to follow through. This would suggest that strategies that may have worked well for forty years or more could be suffering greatly now. Traders should consider the current choppy market behavior when designing strategies. Buying weakness and selling strength is working better than buying strength and selling weakness. They could also monitor charts like these to see if tendencies begin to revert back to pre-2000. If tendencies do revert, adjustments may be needed.
Also at:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/08/short-term-reversal-patterns-among.html
This strategy worked well in the 90’s, but since the market topped in 2000, it has performed poorly. Since the Spring of 2007 it has really accelerated lower. What this means is that performance following up days has been especially bad. It suggests the environenment has been especially choppy. Whereas strength begat strength in the 90’s, it has led to immediate weakness since.
Now let’s take a look at downside follow through. In this case the strategy is to sell short on any down day and then cover on an up day.
This was a break-even strategy through July of 2002. Since then it has done terrible. Interestingly, it’s done especially bad over the last year plus. Even though the market has fallen precipitously, the manner in which it has occurred has made it difficult to profit if you’re trying to short breakdowns. Down days have been followed by up days.
What about a combination strategy? Buy strength and short weakness in anticipation of further follow through. Below is a chart with the combo strategy:
Again, since March 2007 this strategy would have experienced an incredible freefall.
Perhaps it would be best to take a step back, though. In the next chart I show back to 1960 instead of 1993 in an effort to find other periods where choppiness has been so prevalent.
As you can see, buying after strong days and selling after weak ones worked well for 40 years. In 2000 that changed, and the last year and a half is the worst it has ever been with regards to follow through. This would suggest that strategies that may have worked well for forty years or more could be suffering greatly now. Traders should consider the current choppy market behavior when designing strategies. Buying weakness and selling strength is working better than buying strength and selling weakness. They could also monitor charts like these to see if tendencies begin to revert back to pre-2000. If tendencies do revert, adjustments may be needed.
Also at:
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2008/08/short-term-reversal-patterns-among.html
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Friday, August 15, 2008
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
一个操作的思路
=====================================
发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: Bought AEM
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 12 14:14:32 2008)
GG is also good!
USD is overbought!http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=8773981596465332634#
Post Options
========================================
GOLD的确有双头的意思，不过65MA，RSI 25的 50，都是很好的支持！
weekly chart，很明显的支撑阻力点！
在weekly的支撑点，一个doji，昨天一个阳线，这叫启明星吧。
5min chart，三角突破，所以我在2：10左右的时候买入，随后发帖。
发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: Bought AEM
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 12 14:14:32 2008)
GG is also good!
USD is overbought!http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=8773981596465332634#
Post Options
========================================
GOLD的确有双头的意思，不过65MA，RSI 25的 50，都是很好的支持！
weekly chart，很明显的支撑阻力点！
在weekly的支撑点，一个doji，昨天一个阳线，这叫启明星吧。
5min chart，三角突破，所以我在2：10左右的时候买入，随后发帖。
some personal experience
发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: 收盘了，结合自身经历，接着投资新手的话题随便说几句
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Aug 13 16:21:42 2008)
1.别人做的到的，不一定自己也做得到。别人做不到的，不一定自己也做不到。
大傻蛋，psp能在短时间内成为百万富翁，不一定每个人都能在在短时间内成为百万
富翁。天天都有人wipe out，不一定自己就会被wipe out。
2. Do what you like！如果炒股让你很累很操心，真的不划算。如果你觉得干别的都
没意思，就喜欢炒股，那就让自己try一下。
3.不要相信板上天天都有人提金灯银灯的鬼话。傻蛋说过：“赚得比亏得多就是赢。”
自己算算看，每天提一个银灯，三年是多少？
4.Trading accroding to your personality！
5.新手的几点我都完全有同样的体会。做swing的话，80%的时间保持cash是最明智的。
大傻蛋就是这样牛！要忍住！在大部分人都能赚钱的时候，你狠赚一笔，在大部分人都
亏钱的时候，你不亏。这样就牛了。当然，说比做难。这也是傻蛋令人佩服的原因。
6.业余炒股，不可能不经历亏得很惨的阶段。就象任何一件事，刚开始你肯定是上不了
手。何况炒股本来就是和鲨鱼一起游泳。关键是同样的错误不能犯第二次。对我来说：
never average down，no bet on ER恐怕是教训最深的两点。所幸的是，我现在完全克
服了这两个毛病！
7.正如touzixinshou说的，不要follow anyone！plan your trade，trade your plan！
标 题: 收盘了，结合自身经历，接着投资新手的话题随便说几句
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Aug 13 16:21:42 2008)
1.别人做的到的，不一定自己也做得到。别人做不到的，不一定自己也做不到。
大傻蛋，psp能在短时间内成为百万富翁，不一定每个人都能在在短时间内成为百万
富翁。天天都有人wipe out，不一定自己就会被wipe out。
2. Do what you like！如果炒股让你很累很操心，真的不划算。如果你觉得干别的都
没意思，就喜欢炒股，那就让自己try一下。
3.不要相信板上天天都有人提金灯银灯的鬼话。傻蛋说过：“赚得比亏得多就是赢。”
自己算算看，每天提一个银灯，三年是多少？
4.Trading accroding to your personality！
5.新手的几点我都完全有同样的体会。做swing的话，80%的时间保持cash是最明智的。
大傻蛋就是这样牛！要忍住！在大部分人都能赚钱的时候，你狠赚一笔，在大部分人都
亏钱的时候，你不亏。这样就牛了。当然，说比做难。这也是傻蛋令人佩服的原因。
6.业余炒股，不可能不经历亏得很惨的阶段。就象任何一件事，刚开始你肯定是上不了
手。何况炒股本来就是和鲨鱼一起游泳。关键是同样的错误不能犯第二次。对我来说：
never average down，no bet on ER恐怕是教训最深的两点。所幸的是，我现在完全克
服了这两个毛病！
7.正如touzixinshou说的，不要follow anyone！plan your trade，trade your plan！
Monday, August 11, 2008
MOS
发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: MOS
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Aug 4 16:14:07 2008)
commodity完蛋了，不仅是石油，所有的commodity都要完蛋。
有兴趣的自己搜索一下Martin Pring的一些文章。
标 题: MOS
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Aug 4 16:14:07 2008)
commodity完蛋了，不仅是石油，所有的commodity都要完蛋。
有兴趣的自己搜索一下Martin Pring的一些文章。
Friday, August 8, 2008
Amazing chart
Now there is slightly divergence. Not surprised if it drops to 1280 sometime next week.
=============================================
发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: amazing chart
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 7 22:19:35 2008)
由不得你不信TA！
第一次62% 1235，第二次50% 1246，第三次38% 1257，第四次成功冲破1291！
mid term target still 1320，not changed！
=============================================
发信人: yyber (总结过去，展望未来), 信区: Stock
标 题: amazing chart
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 7 22:19:35 2008)
由不得你不信TA！
第一次62% 1235，第二次50% 1246，第三次38% 1257，第四次成功冲破1291！
mid term target still 1320，not changed！
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
CTRP
CTRP - Option traders are running rings – make that Olympic rings – around puts in a leading provider of Chinese travel and hotel accommodations ahead of the Beijing Games. While shares in Chinese online travel booker CTrip.com rose .90% to $45.99, we recorded the single heaviest day of put trading on record for the company – sending overall option volume to nearly 10 times the normal level. Heaviest in demand were August 40 puts, a full $6 out of the money, but trading heavily to buyers at 8 times the open interest. August 45 puts were also heavily in demand. By way of perspective on a stock that could medal in volatility (if there were such a thing), consider that on May 5, exactly three months ago today, shares in CTrip.com topped $70 bucks. The stock has lost about $25 since that time, and while that’s reflected in the near 50% volatility reading in the stock, implied volatility the options ticks in nearly 20 percentage points higher at 68.5% - suggesting much more rockiness ahead. CTrip.com is due to report earnings on August 13.
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