Presidential cycle (zt Murphy)

PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE ... According to the Almanac, presidential election years are usually up years. Most of those gains come in the second half of the year. The last seven months have seen gains in 13 of the last 14 election years (the only exception being in 2000 when the election results were delayed). That would seem to bode well for this year ending strong. A study of presidential year patterns seems to show two distinct patterns. Several bottoms took place by mid-year (1996, 1988, 1984). Others took place during October (2004 and 1992). That doesn't help us determine whether this year's bottom is behind us or ahead of us. It does mean, however, that odds favor the market ending the year on a stronger note once it gets beyond the dangerous September/October period.