几点炒股感悟

炒股，我不是大牛，但是可以说点感受。

1.牛市的时候，随便买都赚钱。

2.熊市的时候，随便short不一定赚钱，因为这个社会和政府总是会想办法去刺激市场
。虽然过几天它也许又会跌下来，但那时那刻，一天涨1000点的时候，任你小熊你100
个胆子，你也会怕的要命。

3.要向大傻蛋学习，大家都能赚钱的时候，出来猛赚一把。大部分人亏钱的时候，抱着
cash待一边看着。

4.天天炒的话，结果就会是今天赚的，明天又亏出去了。我以前炒的挺好的，专门炒以
后，反而进进出出，没赚到钱。

5.没必要羡慕别人赚了多少提了多少灯，一个月赚个800点，一年就是9600点，100%的
return。

具体到现在的形势，我上周末都说过了。就是一个buy in dip，first target 50MA
9250。
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/TA/849.html

具体到后天和下周一，我的建议就是继续等，短期回调很有可能，spx 840和spx 825分
别是两个可以买入的点。

Still Bullish

发信人: yyber (散户+游医), 信区: TA
标 题: 说一下我在这个位置bullish的理由
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Nov 23 21:14:57 2008)

1. DOW and SPX 都探测2002年底部

2. Dow的fib retract点位非常有意思。看图。

3. 从5月19号开始，到11-21，很典型的5波。其中第四波的8500-1000平台整理更是典
型。

4. VIX现在double top，RSI negative divergence。

5. It is already the worst year in history，worse than 1929.看图。
Seasonally，it favors bulls here。

6. Dollar很有意思，现在是一个三角，不过RSI和MACD都指向向下突破。石油和
commodity板块占spx比重最大。

7. SPX日线MACD positive divergence。CPC目前五日均值1.18，very high level。

A few of charts

Plan your trade, trade your

You might have to cut loss, but that is your plan.
Don't be fear or be greed.
===========================================================
发信人: yyber (散户+游医), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: buy today, get rich
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Nov 21 13:19:44 2008)

这帮人真是怕了。2002年的底，规划了好久，说到了这个点就怎样怎样的。真到了他们
都软了。不得不佩服人的心理。

Bond markets react earlier these two days

Yesterday, green day for SPX but also for TLT.

Today, TLT gap up and close with a white candle, SPX open flat and down all day.

bonder traders are indeed smart than stock traders

bond 早上首先就低开了。



再看1：00PM的时候，bond迅速跳了1%，DIA还没反应过来呢。

再转NL的帖子

(1)先把重要的日子跳出来：

1)12月初，即12月2~5日非常关键；

2)其它要严重关切的日子是11月19~21日；11月11~13日。


(2)关键点出来以后，判断可能的发展方式：

1)第一种可能：




说明：

A）其中有两种可能即下周11月11~13日大盘仍有可能会先下挫一下，随后反弹。

B）12月初的低点可能会低于10月10日的低点，也可能不会，这个问题并不重要，重要的是如果12月初是低点，那么就完全和5月11日的预测吻合，后续几个月大盘会有较长时间，较大幅度的反弹。

C）我个人认为这一种可能发生的概率最大。



2)第二种可能：

说明：

A）和Scenario1的区别在于，11月21日以后，大盘仍有可能会继续上升，至12月初；

B）如果这种情况发生，要特别小心12月后可能会有较大的下跌。

C）我个人认为这种可能性要小于Scenario 1。



3)第三种可能：

说明：

A）大盘下周初继续升，但是在11~13日有可能会掉头向下，如果发生，要小心，可能跌至19~21日。

B）我个人认为Scenario 3发生的概率比较小。



三. 具体的注意事项



1） 大盘现在处于趋势不很明朗的状态。

很多人认为大势任然是跌势，对此我无法完全赞同。如果你检查周线和月线图，可以清楚地发现10月大盘的走势是“崩盘”走法。历史上凡是“崩盘”之后，大盘都有剧烈的反弹，有的情况下“崩盘”代表见底，如87年，97年。



2）大盘上下波动，日线图上预测的难度很大。

为什么我会给出几种不同的走法？我现在能判断的是可能的“时间阻力点”，对于究竟是高点还是低点不能肯定。这和8月份的情况相似，如上面所说，我原来预测8月22日是高点，实际上8月22日成了8月11日和9月2日的中点。道理类似，即使能判断出“时间阻力点”，不代表能确定高低点，在现在这种波动较大的情况下，图形有时会被“扭曲”。



3）具体操作：

在“时间阻力点”附近可以考虑暂时减仓，观察是否会出现“Reversal Signal”， 由市场帮助自己做出判断，这样比较保险。或者，在时间阻力点附近，将止损点移动到比较近的位置。

综合上面几种可能的发展趋势，中线来看，做多较好。

Four advise from Alan Farley

I have four pieces of cautionary advice for my at-home brethren. Listen up, because it’s no longer a question of whether you want to take real money out of the market, or just add a few bucks to the weekly shopping budget. These remedial steps must be taken if you want to survive long enough to take advantage of the real opportunity.

1. Wait for the Market Volatility Index (VIX) to drop below 40 and stay there for a week. Massive price swings require equally massive stop losses, which rarely justify the intended positions. Your only alternative is to stand aside and do nothing, no matter how much it hurts to watch others playing those big rallies and selloffs.
2. Forget overnight positions until the index futures stop gapping 2% or more every morning. These price jolts are great news when you’re on the right side of the trade, but total devastation if you’re on the wrong side. And guess what? You’re not smart enough to predict overnight direction from day to day. Neither am I.
3. End your love affair with popular stocks that made you money during the last bull market. In November 2008, these are the issues that will trigger the most painful and unexpected reversals, which happen right after you’re absolutely convinced your position is the right play. The bottom line: They see you coming, sucker.
4. Get control of the time element in your market strategy. You’re getting killed because you have no patience and forgot how to sit on your hands when your trading edge isn’t in play. Realistically, it could be months before the market works for you again. Would you rather wait it out and survive, or stay busy and get crushed?

I still consider buy on dip

Today's low is last Thursday's low. Will sell if it breaks.

Currently I have: QQQQ, WLT, FCX,DRYS,MEDX.

Sold STP and cut MU today.

Tomorrow keep watch Finance sector: GS,BAC,COF and MA.

传几篇MIT的好文

发信人: slimcan (周易炒股好), 信区: Stock
标 题: 给青蛙特别是见了或者要见外婆的青蛙
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Oct 25 01:12:39 2008), 转信

最近股市动荡，不少青蛙损失惨重。很多人面临见外婆的局面。应该再次重申，这实际
上是一件好事。对于投身赌场的新手来说，我们的正确态度应该能劝阻就劝阻。统计表
明，10个里面只有一个人才会赚到钱。虽然大家都很自信，但是没有任何理由表明你就
不是那个赔钱的。

花几天时间，好好总结一下，其实，这是宝贵的财富。如果只是要保住财政不被通膨吃
掉，没有必要到这里来的。投资版其实有很好讨论。版主虽然老不正经，但是还有有货
的。我在chinastock上也发了两篇帖子，希望对大家有帮助。如果决定继续在股市这条
艰难的路上走下去，下面有几条体会希望能有帮助。

第一是要慢下来，耐心等待机会。很多新手不理解。其实班上以前有位朋友说的很好。
股价就像跳舞一样，是按照节奏走的。火候不到，节奏没踩上点就盲目进入，很可能的
结果是两面挨抽。而从投资角度，现在的筹码是不是相当的便宜了. 而新手的最大问题
就是耐不住寂寞，狠不得天天有钱赚。我们看到昨天有位朋友把最后的火种也轻易熄灭
了。这实在是很可惜的事情。

第二点是不要预测。把注意力放在已经发生的事情上，这才是在股市获利的关键。这话
不是我说的，是奥尼尔说的。我是花了一年时间才理解到这个道理。我们看到班上不好
的现象是就是天天预测。预测明天涨还是跌。预测对了就是大牛。一般的人就天天画线
，天天判断。这是在很可笑的事情。正确做法是每天扫描一遍图。然后问自己是不是一
眼就判断出趋势。如果不能一眼就看出来，OK,那么就是没有趋势。耐心等明天，后天
，总有一天会有一个明显的趋势出现。记住，勤奋并不能给你带来利润。过分猜测只会
把你处于危险的位置。

再一点是保守，没有把握不出手，杜绝交易的随意性。养成写好交易计划在下单的习惯
===================================================================================

Unemploy data shows it is indeed worse than 2002

Sell on news

Around Election (zt)

Since the inception of the futures market, there has never been a time when we've seen a gap up on election day greater than +0.5%, so obviously we're seeing yet another unprecedented action here.



There were two times the futures gapped up less than 0.5%, in 1984 and 1988. The market went just about straight down for six days afterward both times, losing 3.2% in 1984 and 4.0% in 1988. Interestingly, buying after that short-term drop and holding for the intermediate-term would have worked out fabulously (gaining about +11% over three months both times).

ignor bad news

Stocks surge as investors anticipate yearend rally
Tuesday November 4, 11:37 pm ET
By Sara Lepro and Tim Paradis, AP Business Writers
Stocks surge as investors anticipate yearend rally, appear steady after Obama win

NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors believing that Wall Street is on the verge of a yearend rally piled into the market Tuesday, brushing off more weak economic data while they scarfed up stocks and propelled the Dow Jones industrials up 300 points to its highest close in four weeks. Stocks appeared set to hold on to their gains following word that Barack Obama had been elected president.

It was the biggest Election Day rally ever for the Dow, which rose 3.28 percent and topped the 1.2 percent gain seen in 1984 when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale. Prior to 1980, the market was closed on Election Day.

Broader market indexes were also up more than 3 percent Tuesday.

After news of Obama's victory, futures trading indicated a slightly firmer opening for stocks on Wednesday. Dow futures rose 15, or 0.2 percent, to 9,602. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose about a point to 1,004, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose about 2 points to 1,383.

Some analysts said the market rose Tuesday on relief that the presidential election was about to be decided. But others said investors were anticipating a year-end recovery from Wall Street's huge sell-off and bought to be sure they didn't miss out on its start.

"I seriously doubt it has much to do with the election, other than we're all looking forward to it being over," said independent investment strategist Edward Yardeni.

The fact that Wall Street is in the final stretch of a tough year is probably lifting stocks more than the elections, he said. "It's almost been a classic textbook crash in September and October followed by a year-end rally."

Steven Goldman, chief market strategist at Weeden & Co., said, "historically, we were at the most oversold levels since October 1974."

"We've come to levels that would tend to discount a lot of bad news," he said.

There's still a feeling the market might fall back and retest the trading lows reached Oct. 10 before entering a true bull market. But it's possible that the retrenchment won't happen until 2009 -- in similar oversold markets in 1974 and 2002, Goldman said, the return to the lows of the bear market did not happen until two months later.

Analysts predict Obama's policies will likely be guided by the weak economy and the recent flood of government support designed to keep the global financial system from collapsing.

The market again looked past a downbeat economic report, as it did on Monday, when investors calmly received a report of a big slowdown in manufacturing before the Dow finished essentially flat.

The Commerce Department said Tuesday that factory orders fell 2.5 percent in September from August, much worse than the 0.7 percent drop analysts predicted. But investors generally expect data from September and October to be extremely weak, as credit markets began to seize up in mid-September. Analysts believe much of the bad news is already factored into stock prices; last week saw the Dow rise 11.3 percent -- its best weekly gain in 34 years.

"The risk of a depression is off the table," said Ben Halliburton, chief investment officer of Tradition Capital Management.

Still, some analysts say the market's gains might not be sustainable. Though the uncertainty surrounding the election will be cleared, they said there are still many economic challenges, and some of the market volatility seen in October, in the weeks and months ahead.

"In the next couple of days, people are going to focus on the fact that we still have these issues," said Bernie McGinn, chief executive of McGinn Investment Management, referring to the worsening economy. "They aren't resolved."

The Dow rose 305.45, or 3.28 percent, to 9,625.28. The Dow last closed above 9,500 on Oct. 6, when it finished at 9,955.50.

The broader indexes also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 39.45, or 4.08 percent, to 1,005.75, its first close over the 1,000 mark since Oct. 13. In the past six sessions, the S&P 500 has rallied 18.3 percent. That includes a 10.8 percent jump that occurred Oct. 28 after last month's steep selloff.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 53.79, or 3.12 percent, to 1,780.12, its sixth straight advance and its longest winning streak of the year.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 7.47, or 1.39 percent, to 545.97.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 4 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 5.45 billion shares, compared with 4.36 billion shares traded Monday.

Energy and industrial stocks led the market higher, while health care names, often a defensive investment, showed more modest advances. Exxon Mobil Corp. rose 4.3 percent, aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. rose 5 percent and Johnson & Johnson advanced 1.2 percent.

There were other signs of the market's growing confidence. Wall Street's fear gauge, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the VIX, fell to 47.73, its lowest close since Oct. 3. The VIX normally trades below 30 and tracks options activity for the companies that make up the S&P 500; it closed as high as 80.06, on Oct. 27.

Investors have overlooked a spate of bad economic data recently, including the report Monday from the Institute for Supply Management that revealed the worst monthly contraction in manufacturing activity. Additionally, automakers reported the lowest level of U.S. car sales in more than 17 years. The market closed narrowly mixed in light trading Monday, with the Dow making just a single-digit point decline -- something that has become unheard of in recent months in the midst of daily several hundred point swings.

"The economic activity in October is obviously very poor," said Halliburton, "and is going to have some very bad numbers reported, and I think that is going to continue in the fourth quarter." As such, investors have begun dipping their toes back in to the market to take advantage of some of the buying opportunities created by the violent swings last month.

The disruptions in the credit markets were at the heart of the recent market volatility, as the evaporation in lending made it difficult for businesses and consumers to get loans, and sparked widespread panic about the economy's ability to avoid a severe downturn. While lending has eased somewhat, analysts contend that the state of the credit markets will remain one of the biggest land mines in the weeks ahead.

The key bank-to-bank lending rate known as Libor fell to 2.71 percent from Monday's rate of 2.86 percent for three-month dollar loans. A fall in the London Interbank Offered Rate indicates that banks are more willing to lend to one another; a month ago, when the credit markets were paralyzed by banks' fear that they wouldn't be repaid on loans, it stood at 4.33 percent.

Investors' demand for short-term government debt remained high, however, a sign that they are still cautious and willing to take a very small return on their investments in exchange for security. The yield on the three-month Treasury bill, seen as one of the safest assets around, stood flat at 0.47 percent from late Monday. A low yield indicates high demand.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.73 percent from 3.92 percent late Monday.

The dollar fell against most other major currencies, while gold prices rose.

Light, sweet crude jumped $6.62 to settle at $70.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a reaction to the slide in the dollar.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei index soared 6.27 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index edged up 0.28 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 4.42 percent, Germany's DAX index jumped 5.00 percent, and France's CAC-40 advanced 4.62 percent.

学习NL的两张图

炒股炒的是心态！( zt顺其自然)

<>序：股市如水，变化无常，而赚钱有方。投资非赌，将炒为赌者，久之必输。炒者，火候也，时机也；火候不对，若炒菜，则或生或糊无以下口；若炒股，则损兵折将苦果难尝。拼拼杀杀，杀杀拼拼，斑斑血泪，血泪斑斑，方悟赚钱之道，只有一方：低进高出，高出低进，如此而已！阴阳相生而相克；跌到极低，阴尽而阳生；涨至极高，阳老则阴胜；物极必反，势所使然。若层峦叠嶂，若深涧幽谷，颠倒翻覆，妙用无穷。像那熊熊牛牛，空空多多，追涨杀跌，杀跌追涨，殚精竭虑，玩那针尖削铁的游戏，长赚久赢者，鲜之有也。炒股所恃者，实力也。偕大资本之实力者，所谓庄家也。庄家者，兴风作浪，翻手云雨，压低拉高，拉高压低，多来杀多，空来杀空，真真假假，假假真真，虚虚实实，实实虚虚。他有计划知实情，随心所欲；你无方略被玩弄，处处陷阱！故绝大多数股民，其亏钱也必；宰的就是你，赚你没商量！而于小资本之股民者，所恃者，唯智慧也。智慧者何？有三也。首曰资金管理，风险控制。每只进股当适量。何谓适量？睡得安稳，错亦无碍也。但有资本在手，就可重整旗鼓，再败再战，总有出头之日。最误人者，重仓出击，犹嫌不足，赌徒心理，借钱炒股，其取败也速，破产之捷径也。不知大千股海，潮起潮落，机会无尽，来日方长，何必在一次一时！二曰策略得当，只做自己能理解的。武当少林，无谓短长。你玩你的，我玩我的。只要赚钱，就是好股！又不是觅夫人寻相公，谁管他绩优或绩差，股小又股大，古狗苹果蓬皮查，消息满天好还差！如你见一群狮子老虎在打架，我不信谁会去挽袖掳拳瞎参乎，何不让那些大鳄巨鲨自搏杀，任我等逍遥自在赚易钱，沽酒钓鱼做神仙。三曰技术，勤练自精。譬如剑术，一招一式，比比划划，功到自然成，把您那熟悉的类型搞精熟，就想不赚钱他也难。之后再慢慢扩展地盘。所以说股市如战场，要深挖洞(多钻研)、广积粮(积经验)、高筑墙(防风险)、缓称王(稳赚赚稳)，人生原来都一样！日积月累，自然精熟，经验老道，方能达到“稳、准、快、狠”，手不乱动，大脑先行，以至于心手合一的境界。炒股最忌者蠢贪二字。蠢者，术不精也，眼不明也，心无定也，手乱动也！(有几个炒股生涯没骂过自己猪头的，请举手！)贪者，明明到顶，不肯撒手；明明快马难追，仍然大举抢进；明明跌跌不休，仍然心存侥幸。何也？往往因蠢而生贪，因贪而更蠢，无以自拔。究其原因，一乃经验不足，不懂技术，不识水性。认真学习，不断练习，时日一长，自然提高。二乃心态不正，其最突出者，以炒股为赌博，只望一夜暴富，何曾付出辛苦！不知凡任何事，要想成功，都得努力，都得专业一点。另一不正心态，乃凡稍有挫折，即灰心丧气，颓萎不知所措，岂不知神仙也是凡人做，只是凡人心不坚！当再鼓精气，继续努力。又则忍不得，一点耐心也无；凡股价稍稍偏离，不去仔细分析，即慌慌逃出；本来好股，只赚小钱，甚至亏损。等股价再升，又悔之莫及，匆忙又进，反而被套；这时他倒又不止损，却去固守，幻想反弹。如此反反复复，一年到头，不亏才怪，白忙白了少年头。凡此种种，不一而足，皆成魔障，阻人成功。故更上层楼，大智慧者，则曰心态，曰中庸，曰不贪婪；曰忍，曰顺其自然，顺势而为；曰股票非股非非股，曰心中无股，曰非股票动，乃尔心动；曰人生，曰哲理，曰祸福相倚；曰月白风清，花是红的叶是绿的，曰修心养性。。。如此者再三，而仙道成也。仙者，不贪也，无争也，胜人不如超越自我也；恬淡者，心态也，不强求也，适可而止也，得失一笑，得是经验，失是学习也。歌曰：老君八卦炉中炼，阴阳火候都齐全；烟熏火燎成金睛，点石变金一指仙。石者，何也？垃圾也，彼弃之者，吾取之也；变废为宝，彼求之者，吾与之也，赶快拿去！正所谓，两只投资眼，一片济人心；悟者自悟，不悟者不悟。悟了的，慧眼独具石变金，日日清闲自在；不悟的，盲目从众金当砖，时时苦眉愁脸。咦！股海无边，性定是岸。性定则心明，心明则智慧生，智慧生则股股像如歌之行板，笔笔是精彩的华章。正所谓会的不忙，忙的不会；股市无常心有常，赚钱有方胜无方！此为之序。贻笑大方，权为一哂。



“难！难！难！道最玄，莫把金言作等闲。不遇至人传妙诀，空言口困舌头干！”