Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Around Election (zt)



Since the inception of the futures market, there has never been a time when we've seen a gap up on election day greater than +0.5%, so obviously we're seeing yet another unprecedented action here.



There were two times the futures gapped up less than 0.5%, in 1984 and 1988. The market went just about straight down for six days afterward both times, losing 3.2% in 1984 and 4.0% in 1988. Interestingly, buying after that short-term drop and holding for the intermediate-term would have worked out fabulously (gaining about +11% over three months both times).

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