MER and AAPL----VOLUME talks

My current view on market

1）Lower high; 50 MA and 200 MA point down!

2）Up without volume

3）XLF turned around at 50MA as before

4) Small cap and large cap ratio retreat at 0.278

5) In terms of RIMM, we should remember the GAP on FEB 21 has priced in some good numbers.

Watch list----Some stocks from IBD 100

ICE
MA
CMI
LEAP
AUY
CMG
DLB
GFIG
GME
HRBN
MICC
RATE
WFR
JST
GA

Review of some recent transactions

Sold XHB put today. Put when price was 23.5, now it is 21. As planned.

BIDU put is a big loser, which dragges my whole option account. I will still follow my plan and cut when it stands above 250.

CROX is a blind follow, which is not good too. Lesson learned!

Others are ok! Option is hard to play!

BIDU, weekly chart and hourly chart

BIDZ, VRTX and XLF

MQP

发信人: yyber (日不过三=戒贪), 信区: Stock
标 题: today is a perfect day to build short postion
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 26 21:39:20 2008)

If you missed the chance and tomorrow no gap down, short everything!!

==================================================================

发信人: yyber (日不过三=戒贪), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: today is a perfect day to build short postion
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 26 21:42:08 2008)

QQQQ:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p52019683751&a=134350018&listNum=3

XLF:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p52019683751&a=134349645&listNum=3

$TRAN
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p52019683751&a=134349906&listNum=3

XLB:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XHB&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p44995646108&a=134013788&listNum=1

Think again, small cap and big cap

Two must read

TA classics：

John J Murphy - Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets.pdf
http://download.xdrive.com/s/5699093222YYz2kbdQaqQSx6awaw&partner=xdrv


John J Murphy - Intermarket Technical Analysis - Trading Strategies For The Global Stock, Bond, Commodity, And Currency Markets.pdf
http://download.xdrive.com/s/569909469x8dvVx5R8yLbU1bXucU&partner=xdrv

some quotes

温瑞安的炒股经，在他的小说里说的很清楚了。那就是“冷血无情铁手追命”

冷血说的是面对market的up and down，不为表象所动，心中自有主张。
无情说的是when trend is against you，cut loss ruthlessly.
铁手说的是要拿的住，不要涨了一点就急于套利lock profit，think big！
追命说的是livemore那句话："A stock is never too high to buy and never too low to short."

==============================================
Livemore said：

"Whenever I have had the patience to wait for the market to arrive at what I call a Pivotal Point before I started to trade; I have always made money in my operations."

"I never benefited much from a move if I did not get in at somewhere near the beginning of the move. And the reason is that I missed the backlog of profit which is very necessary to provide the courage and patience to sit thourgh a move until the end comes - and to stay through any minor reactions or rallies which were bound to occur from time to time before the movement had completed its course."

A few points

1. SPX weekly RSI
2. Price volume divergence during the past three days
3. AAPL 145， BIDU 250
4. XHB will go to 20
5. commodity up again
6. to be continue

APA and LDK------ to be a true chart reader

I did not load APA at that point either because I am naive, too!
But I loaded LDK at the perfect time!

Drys and LIFC

The indexes, SPX and COMPX, are not promising.
Price up, Volume down, divergence!
Compare these three days with Dec-24!

today's actions

发信人: yyber (日不过三=戒贪), 信区: Stock
标 题: short
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 24 13:47:58 2008)

今天涨得人神共愤！！
short AAPL at 139.7
short XHB at 23.3！

XHB is planned！
AAPL is easy to set stop at 145，not afraid！

==========================================================
The crox March 17.5 call I bought at 0.2$ last thursday did give me a 5X return。It was exercised and then sold at 18.5 by IB this morning。

Kind of gamble，never do it again！

The BIDU I put last Thursday burned my ass today. Without this Crox baby, I can not make even with such a good weather. I was busy today and did not have a chance to stop out the put. So I will just keep it. the weekly 50MA 250 should be a major resistance!

Sometimes, a trend follower tends to chase high (low)! It is painfull!

-----------------------------------------------------------------



---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday's prediction

With XLF and XHB reach their resistances, I think Monday is a down day although not sure how many points!

Shortside: XHB(major resistance at 23) MER(volume, resistance at 47.5-50)
Longside: Drys
Watch MOS and MTL, when possible, add short!

2003-2004美国股市一年炒股小结 by watchman

zt from mitbbs:(watchman) at 2004.8.6 02:22

2003-2004美国股市一年炒股小结

2003年的这波小牛市，我是去年6月入市的，到现在一年多一点，本金翻了四倍。这
个成绩比上不足，比下有余，算是马马虎虎吧。

最近行情不太好，我的手风也不太顺，原来最高时六倍的利润吐回去不少。于是决
定暂时退出市场观望一番，顺便写点股市总结。

作股票，最重要的是什么呢？

我个人体会，第一重要是要找到一个适合自己的交易方法和交易系统。具体说，就
是在股市中知道怎么赚钱，为什么赚钱，也知道如何重复赚钱的经历，也要知道为
什么亏钱，以及如何避免亏钱。交易方法是其他重要概念，比如趋势，盘面感觉，
止损，止赢，资金管理，风险控制等等的基础。这几者之间也是有机结合在一起的。

千人千面，每个高手的交易方法都不太一样。有的擅长长线价值挖掘和价值发现，
比如巴菲特老神仙；有的擅长抓中线黑马，比如那个赚了200万的加拿大演员；有的
擅长短线炒作或者day-trading，比如坛子上的高手.

我的交易方法也属于短线型，更具体的说，属于pattern-trading。我通过每天大量
过滤筛选当日市场上的强壮强势股，从中寻找我认为赢面很大的pattern进行炒作。

至于这些pattern具体如何，我不在这里分享了。倒不是我保守，而是“股无定式
”。其实这些pattern平淡无奇，但对它的把握和应用才是最难的，也是只可意会，
无法言传的。只有你亲自发掘的pattern，你才会有深刻的印象和体验。照搬别人
的东西是没用的。

我举个例子。北美有个叫牧风的高人，发明了一套价量比选股系统。基本思路是
量在价先，量为价基，通过量比和价比的变化来寻找大黑马。老哥把每天的选股
结果都公布在网上（http://staff.washington.edu/jw22/），可惜，我到现在对
这套系统也没有抓住精髓。所以说，不是自己的东西，只能借鉴其思想，想生吞
活扒抄方法是没戏的。

寻找交易方法，是一个漫长并且痛苦的过程，是用无数的金钱，时间和精力做代
价的。这个过程，有点像武侠小说中所描述的“顿悟”。根据我自己和前人的经
验，这个过程最少三年，一般五到七年，也有一辈子没入门的。我自己是常人之
资，花了大概六七年吧。中间有过三次痛彻心肺，血本无归的经历。

这个过程，主要是靠自己摸索。有名师指导当然最好，不过多数人都没有这个福
气。我有几个建议，大家可以试试。

第一，准备一套比较好的股票分析系统。比如amibroker, metastock等等。有些
网上的股票系统，比如bigcharts, stockcharts也不错，可惜功能有限。工欲善
其事，必先利其器，这是不用说的。

第二，把过去一两年里大牛股的图形找出来，好好揣摩从建仓，拔高，洗盘，飙
升，筑顶，出货这一整套过程。牛股一定有牛庄，庄稼骗散户那套伎俩在哪里都
差不多。养，套，杀，中国美国庄家一个样。不过我个人感觉，美国庄稼多数还
是有点职业道德的，有钱大家一起赚。相反，中国庄稼要坏的多，挖空心思损人
不利己，象xing这个恶庄，我在上面亏了不少钱。大家要小心中概股的恶庄。

第三，有条件的可以开盘时学习盯盘，收盘后学习复盘总结。主要是培养盘面感
觉。感觉这东西悬得很，除了天赋，就是苦练。对于我来说，盘面感觉有些时候
往往是做决定的直接原因，因为多空因素同时存在，同时作用，过多的分析只会
更加优柔寡断。我基本上不会因为感觉好而进货，但我会因为感觉不好而出货观
望。我个人对于大盘顶的感觉非常敏锐，但是对于底部感觉相对迟钝很多。

寻找交易方法，有些原则可以参考。

第一，只做强势股票。
如果你做长线，牢记价值挖掘和价值发现，这个我不是专家，就略过了；如果你
做中短线，牢记要炒强势股票。有些积弱难返，散户行情的股票，除非有特别把
握，最好不要碰。具体说，就是年线（200天或250天）以下的股票少碰。我知道
有人喜欢抄这种股票的底，觉得便宜风险小。其实，这种弱势股票，大盘涨他涨
得很少，大盘跌他跟着一起狂跌。没有庄稼的看护，这种股票其实风险更大。

举例来说，一直有人喜欢ivan这个股票。其实，像这种前期爆炒过的股票，上方
套牢无数，可以让人看着以前的疯狂发挥想象力幻想今后的疯狂，其实他的上升
空间不大。如果你实在要抄这种股票的底，一个办法是等到他的200天均线跌到
足够低，反过来对股价形成一个支撑，并且60天季线上穿年线。在牛市里，时间
就是金钱。捂一只几个月不涨的股票，还不如买指数。牛市里赚不到钱的人，在
熊市日子可能更难过。

我们炒股要有一个概念，就是股票市场有严重的“马太效应” - 富者更富，穷者
更穷。这不单单是指庄稼与散户之间赚钱亏钱的道理，而且股票内部关系也是如
此。拿美国股市近万只股票分析，大市从2003年初到2004年初，大概上升了70%。
但个股涨幅超过70%的不到2000只，就是说，80%的股票涨幅落后大市，只有20%的
领先。

在这2000只领涨股中，涨幅超过100%的有1000多只，涨幅超过200%的有400多只，
也就是说，在20%的领涨股中，有一半以上是远超过大势表现（100%涨幅），有
五分之一是非常非常牛（200%涨幅），也就是说，要么不如大势，要涨就拼命涨。

从成交量上分析，近万只股票中，日平均成交量大于10万股的，不到3000只。我
们知道，量在价先，日平均成交量不到10万股的股票，是很难有大的表现（除了
少数盘子超小的股票）。进一步的分析表明，20%的股票占据了这个市场80%的成
交量，而其余80%的股票，成交量很少很少。

所以，我们看到的是股票市场严重的不均衡。价格表现不均衡，成交量不均衡，
赚钱亏钱不均衡。

我讲这个的目的是进一步强调大家要做强势强庄股。

第二，技术分析和趋势。
技术分析这个东西，不可不学，这是防身术。但学了也不可尽信。技术分析有很
多似似而非的东西，有很多钻牛角尖的东西，还有很多迷信在里面。大道至简，
技术分析的根本在于趋势，而中长期均线的组合是判断趋势的利器之一。60天季
线和200天年线是牛熊必争之地。短期均线我个人主要是用来判断支撑位和止损
位，用来帮助进货出货。10天和20天均线是庄稼拉升成本价和支撑线。

量在价先，量为价基。量的分析是基础的基础。不过量很容易通过大量对敲来进
行欺骗，所以对于量的把握也很微妙。比如说，一般而言，不带量的突破通常是
假突破，但是如果前期有巨量打桩，后期就常常会出现无量突破。又比如，放量
下跌，既可以看作庄稼夺路出逃，又可以看作有人趁机吸纳，应用之妙，存乎一
心。

短线的分时图（小时图，30分钟，15分钟）外加均线对于炒作强势强庄股是必不
可少的。周线图对于判断中期头/底部也很有帮助。

价格形态分析（如双底双顶）是双刃剑，学好了威力无穷，学不好左右挨耳光，
形态改变或者形态失败是常见的事情，切忌生套形态。

技术指标有一定参考意义，rsi, macd, kdj, obv, bolling band，都是属于用好
了帮大忙，用不好死悄悄的一类双刃剑。这些指标还有一个用途，就是防止情绪
化的追涨杀跌。

至于更悬的波浪理论，江恩理论，易经测市，不太好说。我当年在中国大陆很早
就学习了江恩理论，现在回头想想，里面类似封建迷信的成分好像更大。不过，
姜恩对于时间的认识，很有独到之处，值得借鉴。

趋势逆转要时间。大趋势逆转要有筑底或筑顶，并运行一段时间（至少3-6个月）
来确认。小趋势逆转需要3-5天的间歇期。判断小趋势逆转，盘面感觉比均线系
统更可靠。关注市场内的庄股动向和热点分布，可以感受市场的强弱和脉搏。

第三，止损。
凡是属于中短线投机的，止损是在股市中生存的不二法门，这一点是无数高手的
经验总结，是不需要质疑的。人只要会犯错误，就要止损。当然，前提是你要有
一套赚钱的交易方法，否则天天止损天天流血也活不长。止损和你的交易方法有
直接关系，比较常见的有，关键点位止损，百分比10%止损，趋势逆转止损。具
体还是大家自己慢慢感悟吧。不过记住，止损本身是不能带来收益的，如果你因
为止损亏损巨大，你需要好好察看自己的交易方法和操作是否出了问题。

第四，止赢。
高手的经验都是“cut lost, and let profit run”。高手的止赢策略基本上是
根据均线系统判断并跟随趋势，设定止赢位，让利润充分增长。比较常见的止赢
有关键点位止赢，百分比20%止赢，趋势逆转止赢。关于止赢这一点我做的不太
好。这和我的交易方法有关系。因为我的交易时间太短（很少hold 3天以上的），
做的又是暴涨暴跌的股票，所以我基本是采取20%目标价位止赢。这让我回避了
很多风险，但也让我和无数黑马擦肩而过。我卖出的股票，第二天继续涨20-50%
的比比皆是，不过，第二天跌20%的也很多。现在回头想，在去年那种大牛市中，
我应该胆子稍微在大点，让利润在充分增长些，而在今年的调整市中，我的止赢
策略是正确的。

止损和止赢都和进货点有很大关系。一个糟糕的进货点会让以后的行动很被动。
基本上，我喜欢在强势强庄股回调的时候介入。10天或20天均线是个很好的参
照物。追高入货在大牛市或许奏效，但在震荡市是自寻死路。

第五，资金管理和风险管理。
这一点我不是专家，没有太多分享的。不过，我不建议小投资人过于分散投资，
而倾向于巴菲特所喜好的集中投资在几个股票上。老巴说，分散投资是出于无知
的无奈之举。

炒股一招走天下。我做股票也只是擅长自己的独门秘技。我对于作空，期权，期
货等等，都不擅长。试过很多次，有赚有赔，基本持平，不过，始终没找到顿悟
的感觉。

做股票对一个人的心性是一个很大的磨练。年少轻狂的时候，常常以为自己有多
了不起，时时自比索罗斯，巴菲特。后来摔了三次大跟头，那种痛彻心肺，夜不
能寐的感觉，我想只有过来人才能体会。再后来开始学习磨练心性，学习沉稳低
调，和自我调整心态。股市是一面镜子，将人性种种的弱点表现无遗。股市也是
一个磨刀石，磨砺人性的种种缺陷。

保持一个心平气和，拿得起放得下的心态，对于炒股是至关重要的。

股市不是生活的全部。但股市有些时候会像一个恶魔一样，吸进你整个人的全部
身心和全部精力。我见过太多如同吸毒般沉湎于股市不能自拔的人，也见过太多
终日情绪随同股市起起伏伏的人。我想，这是一个下决心认真面对股市的人所必
经的一个阶段，但人生不可能一辈子如此活。也许，就像武侠小说里的高手，武
功练到一个程度，心性的修炼反而成了更高的境界。

其实，我上面讲的也都是老生常谈，没有什么新鲜的东西。不过，如果能够帮到
一些还在摸索的朋友们，在一个纷纭复杂的股票世界里给他们一点建议，让他们
能够抓住炒股的要害核心。我就心满意足了。

继续潜水。


下面谈谈对2004下半年美国大市的看法。
股市跌到今天，称不上血雨腥风，也算是屁滚尿流了。
我对美国下半年经济形势不是特别看好，加上各种各样乱七八糟的利空，感觉上
股市还有调整的需要。
技术上，大盘跌穿了200天年线，而60天季线也下穿200天年线。明显的弱势，并
且可能还会持续一段时间。以后大盘即使有反弹，200天年线也会成为强大阻力，
估计要至少试一次才能过去。所以基本策略应该是持币观望。如果vix超过20以
上，也可以考虑择机抄底买入。目前vix一直上不去，对抄底派不是好事。
从另外一个角度看，200天年线处于2000点附近，相对1400点底部而言，这并不
是一个很高的点位，除非突发性大利空导致长期衰退，200天年线应该还有重新
向上的潜力，这形成了一个对股价向上的拉力。在美国历史上也有多次股价跌
破年线的例子，但基本上都是中期调整后，股市重新上扬。
我估计大市会继续现在的盘整状态，但也不太会深跌（除非无法预测的大利空），
基本上是以时间换空间磨蹭到年底大选，然后选择突破方向。让市场自己决定吧。
另外，市场可能会以下跌来逼迫老葛做出暂缓加息的决定。



--
纸笔下江湖，万金谈笑间， | 远离中国风，
半月杀一股，对季九重天。 | 不碰垃圾股。
涨跌浮云日，朝朝生死签， | 看大盘为主，
众醒独我醉，风云化外仙。 | 挑个股作辅。
罗马不是一天建起来的，亚特兰蒂斯可是眨眼就没了....

闻名于世的“江恩入出市守则”

1。每次入市买卖，损失不得超过投入的10%。
2。任何买卖必须设定最后停损点。
3。永不过渡投资，杠杆式买卖要在安全范围之内。
4。永不让所持舱位专赢为亏。
5。不和市场对抗，不逆市操作，一发觉做错及时反仓。
6。有怀疑，即平仓离场。
7。只在活跃的市场买卖，避免进入欠透明度及成交量少的市场。
8。在单边市不宜限价买卖。
9。如无适当理由，勿将所持仓盘平仓，可以用止损位保障所得利润。
10。在买卖遭损时，切忌加码。
11。不要因为不耐烦而入市，也不要因为不耐烦而平仓。
12。入市后定下得止损盘，不宜随便取消。
13。揸沽自如，不应只做单边。
14。不要把所有资金投资于一个项目，但也不宜太过分散投资。
15。投资组合坚决执行汰弱留强才能跑赢大市。
16。揣摩市场群众的心理和做法，而制定出更好的策略。
17。耐心等待胜算高的机会到来时全力一击。
18。承认看错市势机会高出1/3，做错方向时尽早止损，不宜用锁仓的办法逃避风险。

BIDU and SPX 2002 bottom

The 2002 SPX one is forwarded from Cobra!

10x的全亏了

一早上了几个ovti march 17.5p（maxpain is between 12.5 to 15），本来以为这个庄股要给我个惊喜的，结果全打水漂了。
AAPL march 130p （maxpain 125，收在133），死光光！
BIDU 本来有机会赚出来的，搞到最后全没了！
CROX march 17.5c （maxpain 25）有机会2X出手的，也亏了！
DRYS march 60c （maxpain 65）死光光！

昨天在WFR上的4X全搭出去了！

FWLT和CMG很有意思，可惜没搞定！

tomorrow's potential nX

Today SPX closed at FIB 50%! Tomorrow is uncertain.

long side:
DRYS 60c,
WYNN 100c

short side:
MER 40p
BIDU 210p
mos 95p
WFR 80p

Greed and fear!

对于greed的人：
take care of losers，let profit run！
run到最后profit变成loss！

对于fear的人：
buy at confirm；
最后confirm了，trend又变了，cut loss！

DBA and MOS

The 5 waves---Murphy

LINE CHART SHOWS FIFTH DOWNWAVE... Earlier today I wrote a Market Message supporting the idea that the stock market appears to be putting in a bottom of at least intermediate proportions. I also showed a number of short-term positive divergences suggesting that the market is due for a rally. I got a number of e-mails asking for an update on my Elliott Wave reading. While the market was consolidating during February, I wrote that I expected the market to have one more downleg. That's because bear markets usually take place in five waves. Chart 1 is intended to suggest that the fifth wave may have just been completed. That's why I'm using a line chart instead of a bar chart. On a daily bar chart, it looks like the S&P 500 bounced off its January low (forming a potential double bottom). The line chart shows that a new low was hit. In either case, it looks like this phase of the decline starting last October has been completed. [The second trough of a double bottom can also serve as a fifth downwave at the end of a decline]. That doesn't necessarily mean that a new bull market is in the offing. It just means that the market is due for a decent rally. I've placed the 12-day Rate of Change (ROC) oscillator below Chart 1 for a reason. The rising trendline shows the positive divergence between the rising ROC and the falling S&P price. Positive divergences take on more importance if the market is in its fifth wave down. And I believe that to be the case. As a result, I've turned a good deal less bearish on the market

这次搞得很糟糕，抓住了底，没赚到钱

发信人: yyber (冲动是魔鬼), 信区: Stock
标 题: 今天这个底是最明显不过的了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Mar 15 00:31:36 2008)

charts never lie！
顺便说一下我现在的几个position，比较轻的仓。

short MTL，stop at 142.5！
call CMI，LDK，CROX！
put VIX！

===========================================================================
Lesson：next time, in this situation, play index only!
The other thing disturbed my mind is the IB sectors. Greed makes me lose control again!

Play with IV

In the time of turmoil, the best strategy is playing IV! The QQQQ strangle I bought yesterday gives me 10% return so far.

I chased MER put yesterday. Its IV dropped a lot this morning. It was a bad trade. I did not conquer my greed this time! This is one of my worst plays recently. The missed BSC and LEH finally turned my greed on although I planned to only DT before FOMC. It is a lesson.

In RIMM today at 98

1)看到vix 35都不敢上的，要么是贪婪，要么是害怕. Sure I could lose money on this trade, but I just trade according to my plan!
2）如果vix 35都不上一点试试水。我想问，你天天学习，研究这些指数干什么？
3）old says：'XX on rumor, XX on news." Is not today that situation？BSC finally goes to bankrupt.
4) For RIMM, I only see 98. I think it holds well this morning!
================================================================
"Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling."---Livemore!
BSC and LEH's case!

I call it a day

Closed PCLN put initiated yesterday. From 1.35 to 2.2.

Put AAPL this morning, from 1.35 to 2.5. I did not know the BSC news and the CPI number. All I know is AAPL reached its resistance. I am kind of lucky recently! But I think I am gradually overcome my greed.

Called LDK APR 30 at 1.8! I will see how it is going next week. This baby seldom cares Mr. Ben or the index.

Last year, I lost money in the market. But due to the wash sale rule, I need pay tax! This is so faint!

=====================================================

每日市场点评 --- March 14, 2008

来源: 股海一粟 于 08-03-14 14:49:13 [档案] [博客] [旧帖] [转至博客] [给我悄悄话]

A normally quiet Friday turned out to be one of the most volatile sessions in recent years. All three major indices ended the day down by more than 1.5%. But for the week, Dow was actually higher compared to one week ago while S&P500 lost less than half a percent. The VIX index closed at 31.16, the highest since March 2003 - the month that US launched the second “Gulf War” against Iraq and was marked as the end of the 2000 – 2003 bear market. Can history repeat this time? Only time will tell.

Most of today’s volatility can be attributed to one single company – Bear Stearns. The company last time enjoying this kind of publicity was in July 2007, when two hedge funds of the company collapsed due to their sub-prime exposure. Today, it was the fate of the company itself that unnerved investors. The news that the company’s liquidity had deteriorated severely during the past 24 hours and the Fed has chosen JPMorgan to bail it out sent its shares down by more than 50% earlier in the day. The volume was gigantic as more than 186 million shares were changed hands for a company that has total outstanding shares of just 118 million. The fall of Bear Stearns brought down the whole financial sector and in fact, 8 out of the 10 most actively traded companies on NYSE belonged to this group. The news also overwhelmed a rather bullish CPI report (both headline and core CPI numbers were unchanged m-o-m), which initially drove the Dow futures to a gain of more than 120 points.The financial market was in a disorderly fashion following today’s event.

The US dollar hit a new record low against the Euro while closed at the lowest level against the Japanese Yen in 13 years. Gold price closed above $1000 for the first time in history. The two-year Treasury note’s yield dropped 14 bps to 1.48% after touching 1.37% earlier, the lowest level since July 2003. Traders, meantime, increased the bets of 100 bps interest rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting to 60% from 0% yesterday. The spreads between risky assets and risk-free treasuries were not narrowed much despite the recent actions taken by the Fed. For example, the spread on the current-coupon 30-y fixed-rate mortgage securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae over 10-year notes was 207 bps today compared with an average of about 112 bps in the past five years. As for next week, which is a shortened one due to the Good Friday holiday, we are going to get several brokerages releasing their latest quarter’s results, which may not look good but investors will try to look for clues whether the worst is behind. Also, the Fed is going to announce its latest interest rate decision on Tuesday, which can be a big market moving factor.

BSC

The other weak one is LEH!

But somehow I think may this maybe the bottom. “庆父不死鲁难未已”！when all bad news are out, we know the next!

见贤思齐

发信人: ggalaxy (银河), 信区: Stock
标 题: 删光了帖子，留下一句话
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Mar 13 18:22:23 2008)

要想股市提款：

1 要忍的住；2 看准时下手狠；3 不贪不恋冷酷无情；

=====================================
I was very bad on 1 during the first 6 month's trade experience. After painful lessons, now I am a little bit better.

Compare the two biggest enemies, greed and fear, I don't have fear most of time, but I am always too greed. I short MTL at 136.5 and set a stop at 143. The lowest price after my short was 121. I didn't take profit, now it becomes a loss. I should at least do one thing: never turn a profit to loss no matter how small the profit is! One dollar gain and one dollar loss is a huge diffrence!!!

People says：“An apprentice knows how to buy, but only master knows how to sell." Ok, I am still an apprentice!!

ANATOMY OF A DOUBLE BOTTOM (Murphy)

... For the sake of argument, let's look at a double bottom and apply the analysis to today's situation. By analyzing a prior double bottom, we can identify the requirements for a confirmed double bottom. This will give us an idea of what to look for in the coming days.

Chart 3 shows a double bottom in the S&P 500 in June–July 2006. After a sharp decline in May–June, the S&P 500 found support around 1220 to start the double bottom process. I have identified five critical points. First, the index established a reaction low in mid June. Second, there was a support test in mid July. Third, the index surged off support with a big move. Fourth, there was follow-through after this surge. Fifth, the index broke resistance around 1280 to fully confirm the double bottom. You can also see that the index broke above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Perhaps more importantly, the 200-day moving average never turned down and continued to rise in June and July. This last point could be critical.

A DOUBLE BOTTOM NOW?... Now let's look at the current S&P 500 chart for comparison (Chart 4). First, the index bounced in January to forge the initial low. Second, there was a support test in early March. Third, there was a surge off support. That leaves steps four and five left in the process. One big surge, while impressive, is not enough to reverse a 4–5 month downtrend. Follow through (step four) is required to validate this initial euphoria. With key resistance set at 1400, the sixth step requires a break above this level. Such a move would also break the 50-day moving average.

Chart 4
It is also noteworthy that the 200-day moving average is currently falling. In contrast, the 200-day moving average was still rising in July 2006. This means the index is in worse shape now than it was in July 2006. With that in mind, the odds of a successful double bottom here are reduced.

A good DTer doesn't predict market

Today, markets open low and seems very weak. While I regret the cheap BSC put I sold yesterday, I decided not touch this baby today since it openned too low!

RIMM holds 98 very well. March 103.375 from 1.5 to 4.3! The simplest is the best!

I put PCLN when the price was 123.5, however, there is no movement after that. I will hold it through the night and I will certainly close it tomorrow no matter win or lose!

Read books!

1. Options Essential Concepts and Trading Strategies, 2nd Edition.pdf
http://download.xdrive.com/s/379762577ymvHKo7ffk2dLWTxFHG?partner=xdrv
2. Crane, John's - Advanced Swing Trading.pdf
http://download.xdrive.com/s/379762501adjS1HyAdAKQknE5vQP?partner=xdrv

FOLLOW my rule, DT only before FOMC (PCLN and BSC)

It is hard to change from a bear to a bull in one day, so I choose sit on sideway, which I learned from DSD. There is no so called "life time opportunity" in the stock market. Just trade according to my plan and consistently improve myself!

Sometimes, we should happily take loss. Otherwise, you are sitting on the losers and couldn't move on! I cutted some loss yesterday.

QQQQ，FWLT，DECK

发信人: yyber (冲动是魔鬼), 信区: Stock

标 题: Bears, Let's take a break

发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Mar 11 22:20:46 2008)

The reality is: we can not have party everyday!This time, from 12750 to 11730. Market has given us 1000 points. Don't be too gread!

From the QQQQ hourly chart, we can see, 42.1 is the support/resistance. I personally expect a pig market for the next week (before FOMC). Let's take abreak and read some books. I will upload somebooks to my blog later!

Largest Positive Point Days Ever For The Dow

"Today's gain of 415 points ranks 4th on the list of the top positive point days for the Dow. Below we highlight all +300 point days for the Dow. While investors should really look at the daily percentage change for comparison's sake, big up days based on points are significant because of their impact on investor sentiment."

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/03/largest-positiv.html

FED rate and SPX500 (ZT)

ppteam from DQ

看了这个图的感觉就是，什么时候FED停止降息了，什么时候底到了！

Murphy's target on $compx

SOLF and FWLT

标 题: 今天最高兴的一件事

发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 10 11:42:06 2008)

stop掉了一个loser，move on了！It is SOLF!

====================================

发信人: yyber (冲动是魔鬼), 信区: Stock
标 题: today's first transction
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 10 09:36:50 2008)

FWLT Mar 60 p at 1.35

RIMM and MOS

发信人: yyber (冲动是魔鬼), 信区: Stock
标 题: Simplest may be the best
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 7 13:17:33 2008)

发信人: yyber (冲动是魔鬼), 信区: Stock
标 题: 你敢吗？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Mar 7 15:44:22 2008)

MTL and CROX

发信人: yyber (冲动是魔鬼),
信区: Stock
标题: MTL
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Mar 6 15:11:23 2008)

it maybe ok to short some at this price（136.4)． stop could be 142.3!

It is a small volume stock. Anything could happen. Don't play option with it, the spead is too big!!

发信人: ggalaxy (银河), 信区: Stock
标 题: 关于CROX
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Mar 6 11:57:06 2008)

一张CROX最近走法的Reactional Swing图。估计今或明两天内结束SWING system，考虑到一个6 Month的Support，未来估计向上走一些。

YMYD.

NYA(from Murphy)

BOTTOMS VERSUS TOPS... While looking at the five-year bull run, I was struck by the inverse similarities between the April 2003 breakout and the January 2008 break down. The yellow areas show the start of the bull market and the beginning of the bear market. The first big trend reversal started with two lows around 4700–4800 and a resistance breakout in April 2003. There was a consolidation just above the resistance breakout and then a continuation higher. Thus began the bull market.

Chart 8
The next big trend reversal started with two highs around 10200–10300 and a support break in January 2008. The index consolidated just below the support break over the last few weeks. Look for a move below consolidation support to signal a continuation lower. The bull market lasted 5 years and carried the NY Composite from 4600 to 10300. That's over 100% in five years, which is not a bad bull run at all. Remember the two steps forward and one step backward analogy? A 50% correction (one step backward) would carry the index back to around 7500.

Yield Curve (Murphy)

WHY A STEEPENING YIELD CURVE HURTS THE DOLLAR AND HELPS COMMODITIES... One of our readers asked me to explain my statement that a steepening yield curve hurts the dollar. Chart 1 shows the track record since 1998. The red line is a ratio of the the 10-Year T-Note Yield to the 2-Year Yield. At the start of 2001, the Fed started lowering short-term rates aggressively to combat a new recession and fear of global deflation. That caused short-term rates to fall much faster than long-term rates and caused the spread between them to widen. That led to a big steepening of the yield curve which lasted into 2003. The U.S. Dollar Index (green line) stopped rising at the start of 2001 and, within a year of the steepening, began a huge decline.

Chart: $UST10Y:$UST2Y
=============================================
COMPARISON SINCE 2004... Chart 2 shows that generally inverse relationship between the yield curve (red line) and the dollar (green line) has also been evident since 2004. After peaking in 2003, the yield curve started narrowing during the first half of 2004 and continued to drop until the start of 2006. The Dollar Index stabilized in early 2004 and moved sideways until the start of 2006. As the yield curve stabilized in early 2006, the dollar started dropping. The upturn in the yield curve in mid-2007 coincided with another downleg in the dollar to a record low. The reason has less to do with long-term rates than with short-term rates. The yield curve steepens when the Fed is in an easing mode and narrows when the Fed is raising rates. Fed easing usually coincides with economic weakness which hurts the dollar. Fed tightening usually coincides with economic strength which helps the dollar.

=======================================================
WHAT'S THE IMPACT ON STOCKS ... Another reader asked the impact of the yield curve on stocks. Chart 6 shows their relationship since 2000. There's a generally inverse relationship. A steepening yield curve from 2000 to 2003 coincided with a bear market in stocks. The yield curve peaked in mid-2003 as stocks bottomed. It turned up again in mid-2007 as the market was peaking. How about bonds? Chart 7 shows that there's been a positive relationship between bond prices and the yield curve since 2000. That makes sense. Bonds usually outperform stocks when the Fed is easing (a steeper yield curve), and stocks do better when the Fed is neutral or tightening (flatter yield curve).

$UST:$SPX

======================================================

YIELD CURVE AND COMMODITIES ARE LINKED... I drew a couple of other conclusions last week. One was that the long bond was starting to underperform shorter maturities which suggested that investors should move to the shorter part of the yield curve. That's because the long bond will lag behind shorter maturities as inflation pressures mount. And the fact that commodity prices are trading at record highs suggests that will happen. Another factor working against the long bond is the steepening of the yield curve. That occurs when short-term rates fall faster than long-term rates (as the Fed lowers short-term rates to help the economy). But there's another factor to consider and that's the impact of inflation. Chart 5 plots the CRB Index (red line) and the 10-Year T-Bond yield (blue line) relative to the 2-Year T-Bond yield (flat black line). [In other words, we're comparing the direction of the yield curve to the direction of commodities]. Notice the strong correlation between the two lines. The chart suggests that a steepening yield curve is normally associated with rising commodity prices. There are two reasons for that. A steepening yield curve weakens the dollar which pushes commodity prices higher. Rising commodities, in turn, cause the yield spread to steepen. Since bond prices trend in the opposite direction of yields, a steepening yield curve favors investments in shorter maturities in a climate of rising inflation. It also favors some exposure to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).
=====================================================
YOU CAN SHORTEN MATURITIES WITH TIPS... Last Friday, I plotted a ratio of the Treasury Inflation Protected Bond ETF (TIP) divided by the 20 Year Bond ETF (TLT) to show that money was starting to flow out of the long bond into TIPS to protect against rising inflation pressures in the form of record commodity prices. Chart 5 is another version of the same ratio and shows that process beginning last December and accelerating during January. In addition to the inflation protection TIPS offer, you also get the benefit of shorter maturities. Although TIP maturities range from one to 25 years, its biggest concentration ranges from 5-10 years (39%) to 1-5 years (31%). That puts 70% of its bonds with maturities of less than 10 years. A couple of Inflation-Protected mutual funds I checked put maturities in the 8-9 year range. Chart 6 shows one of them. TIPS offer a way to hold shorter-maturity bonds with some protection against inflation either through a mutual fund or an Exchange Traded Fund.

CMI, AMZN,AAPL,MOS

总结一下为什么两天前我坚决做空

发信人: yyber (冲动是魔鬼),
信区: Stock标 题: 总结一下为什么两天前我坚决做空
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Mar 1 00:25:25 2008)
1.Overall we are in bear market.
2.DOW reached resistance.(I posted the figure)
3.VIX reached 200 MA. (I posted the figure)
4.RSI of weekly SPX is about 42（now 38 after these two days），as you can see it is the separate line.
5.$COMPX still in the triangle as I posted several times(it broke today).
6. IBM's news was funny. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame onme. I posted an article said "Cunzhang dislikes IBM".
7. I know there is a person called loser Ben.When he speaks, market crashes.

(LOL）明天再把这几个图放到我blog里。

Some recent short lists

发信人: yyber (冲动是魔鬼),
信区: Stock标 题: my target on DRYS发信站:
BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 28 11:11:38 2008)
check trend, volume, MACD, FIB, R/S


发信人: yyber (冲动是魔鬼),
信区: Stock标 题: 昨天上FXP的理由
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Feb 28 15:39:22 2008)